je.st
news
Tag: ramon
Tropical Storm Ramon Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-10-04 16:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 041434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017 1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 96.5W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 96.5W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 96.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.1N 97.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.2N 100.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.5N 103.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 96.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Ramon Graphics
2017-10-04 11:07:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 09:07:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 09:07:34 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
ramon
Tropical Storm Ramon Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-10-04 11:03:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040903 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 The small low pressure area located just south of the coast of southern Mexico has been producing persistent convection for about 12 hours. Although the convection is confined to the western portion of the circulation due to strong easterly shear, it has enough organization for the system to be classify as a tropical cyclone. Scatterometer data from 0410 UTC revealed a small area of 35-40 kt winds to the west of the center, so advisories are being initiated on a 40-kt tropical storm, the seventeenth tropical storm of the 2017 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Strong easterly shear is forecast to persist over Ramon during the next during the next few days, which is likely to prevent strengthening of the small tropical storm. The ECMWF and GFS weaken the cyclone over the next day or so, although both models show some interaction with another disturbance farther west in a couple of days. The NHC forecast is of low confidence and calls for no change in strength throughout the forecast period. An alternate scenario is for Ramon to move closer to the coast of Mexico and dissipate within the next 2-3 days. Ramon is moving westward or 270/8 kt to the south of a deep layer ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build westward over northern Mexico during the next few days, which should cause Ramon to move westward at a slightly faster forward speed. Later in the period, Ramon is forecast to reach the western portion of the ridge and turn northwestward. Although most of the model guidance agrees with this general scenario, there is a fair amount of spread in the track models. The GFS and HWRF show a faster westward motion while the ECMWF is much slower. The UKMET is the outlier by taking Ramon eastward toward central America as a low pressure area develops over the western Caribbean. Given the large spread in the guidance, the NHC track forecast shows a slower westward track and is close to the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. The confidence in the track forecast is quite low and interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.3N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.3N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 14.3N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 14.3N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 14.4N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 14.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 14.5N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Ramon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-10-04 10:58:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 040858 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM RAMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017 0900 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 13(34) 2(36) X(36) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 100W 34 X 16(16) 12(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 15N 100W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 2(20) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Ramon (EP4/EP192017)
2017-10-04 10:58:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM FORMS JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Ramon was located near 14.3, -96.0 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
ramon
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] next »