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Post-Tropical Cyclone AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2014-05-29 22:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 292034 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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amanda
Post-Tropical Cyclone AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 29
2014-05-29 22:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292033 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 109.0W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 109.0W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.5N 108.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.8N 108.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.8N 108.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.7N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.0N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 109.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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amanda
Tropical Depression AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 28
2014-05-29 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291432 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2014 The satellite presentation of Amanda has been deteriorating during the last several hours. The remaining deep convection is confined to a band that is about 150 n mi from the center, and even that feature lacks curvature. Dvorak classifications continue to decrease, and on that basis, Amanda is downgraded to a tropical depression with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Continued weakening is forecast, and Amanda will likely become a remnant low in about a day or sooner. Dissipation is predicted to occur in about 4 days, following the GFS and ECMWF models. The low-level center of Amanda had been difficult to find overnight, but recent microwave and visible images indicate that it is located to the south of the previous estimate. In addition, the center itself has become increasingly elongated and diffuse. The depression, or its remnant low, is expected to move eastward or east-northeastward at a decreasing pace for the next 24 to 36 hours. Beyond that time, whatever is left of Amanda should turn southwestward when it is steered by a building low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward mainly to account for the adjusted initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 16.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 16.5N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.6N 108.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0000Z 16.6N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1200Z 16.7N 108.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z 16.1N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-29 16:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu May 29 the center of AMANDA was located near 16.3, -110.0 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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amanda
Tropical Depression AMANDA Public Advisory Number 28
2014-05-29 16:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 291431 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2014 ...AMANDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 110.0W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A SLOWER EASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND AMADA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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