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Tropical Storm AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2014-05-29 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 290832 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0900 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 27
2014-05-29 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0900 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 110.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 110.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.1N 110.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.4N 109.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.5N 109.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.3N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Graphics
2014-05-29 05:07:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 May 2014 02:32:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 May 2014 03:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-05-29 04:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290231 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 The cloud tops of Amanda have been warming during the past few hours with almost no deep convection near the center. Although a well-defined mid-level center is apparent on the latest satellite imagery, this feature is well to the northeast of the low-level circulation as indicated by ASCAT data and a recent SSMI/S pass. Based on the current satellite trends, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt, a bit below the recent Dvorak estimates. The microwave data show that Amanda is moving to the northeast at a little slower pace of about 5 kt. This motion should continue on Thursday ahead of a mid-level trough. This trough is expected to moving away from Amanda by Friday, which would leave the storm in light steering currents. After that time, the weakened storm will probably turn to the west and west-southwest as a low- to mid-level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. There have not been any significant changes to the guidance, and the latest NHC forecast is very close to the previous one. Amanda should continue to weaken for the next couple of days due to moderate shear, dry air aloft and marginal SSTs. While the shear is forecast to weaken some in a day or so, the storm will likely have entrained a significant amount of dry air by then, and it probably won't be able to take advantage of the decreased shear. The cyclone should become a remnant low in a couple of days due to these marginal environment conditions. Most of the guidance shows steady weakening and the official NHC prediction follows suit, at or below the intensity consensus throughout the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 16.3N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 16.7N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 17.2N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 17.6N 109.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 17.3N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 16.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-29 04:31:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed May 28 the center of AMANDA was located near 16.3, -111.3 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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