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Hurricane AMANDA Graphics
2014-05-27 11:07:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 May 2014 08:48:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 May 2014 09:03:47 GMT
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-05-27 10:48:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 270848 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 Amanda apparently still has some gas in the tank. The hurricane appeared to be succumbing to strong vertical shear on Monday, but its satellite presentation has improved markedly during the past several hours. An eye has reappeared and is completely surrounded by convective tops as cold as -85C. The shear is still affecting the structure, however, with the clouds elongated from south to north. Nonetheless, Dvorak estimates have risen to T6.0/115 kt from TAFB, T5.5/102 kt from SAB, and T6.5/127 kt from the objective ADT. The initial intensity is therefore raised to 110 kt based on a conservative blend of these data. The recent reintensification has resulted in a somewhat significant change to the official intensity forecast. Weakening is expected to resume soon due to strong south to southwesterly shear, which should persist for another 24 hours or so. After that time, however, an upper-level shortwave trough currently to the northwest of Amanda is expected to lift northeastward and dampen, which could leave the hurricane in a slightly more favorable upper-level environment for a few days. Due to the higher initial intensity and the more favorably evolving upper-level pattern, the NHC intensity forecast shows more gradual weakening than before, and Amanda may not become a remnant low until the very end of the forecast period. Despite the adjustment, the updated forecast is near the lower end of the intensity guidance and matches best with the FSU Superensemble. The weakening trend could be even slower if the rest of the intensity models end up being correct. Amanda continues to move slowly north-northwestward...or 340/4 kt... between a weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and a mid-/upper-level trough near 20N128W. As the trough migrates eastward, Amanda is forecast to continue moving slowly northward and then turn northeastward by 48 hours. Once the cyclone weakens, however, weak low-level flow off the coast of Mexico will likely cause it to stall or meander by days 4 and 5. Although there is still a significant amount of spread in the track guidance, nearly all of the models have shifted to the right, with the GFS and ECMWF lying on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. The NHC track has also been nudged eastward and lies to the right of the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 14.2N 112.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 14.6N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 15.1N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 15.8N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2014-05-27 10:46:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 270846 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0900 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 10(20) 3(23) 3(26) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 19
2014-05-27 10:46:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 270845 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0900 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.2W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 112.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.1N 112.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.8N 111.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-27 10:45:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA RESTRENGTHENS UNEXPECTEDLY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue May 27 the center of AMANDA was located near 14.2, -112.2 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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