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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)

2021-08-15 16:46:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GRACE REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 15 the center of Grace was located near 17.2, -66.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 9

2021-08-15 16:46:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 151446 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...GRACE REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 66.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Samana * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 66.0 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast until Grace moves over Hispaniola on Monday. Weakening is forecast while the system crosses Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. Some restrengthening could occur if the center moves back over water on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today into Tuesday: Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2021-08-15 16:46:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 151446 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 6( 6) 16(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 38(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE PR 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) AGUADILLA PR 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 9

2021-08-15 16:46:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151446 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 66.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 66.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.8N 67.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 69.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 71.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.3N 74.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N 76.6W...NEAR N. COAST CUBA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.3N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.6N 84.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.5N 89.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 66.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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