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Summary for Tropical Depression Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-16 19:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS FROM GRACE SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI... ...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE IN HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUESDAY... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 the center of Grace was located near 17.8, -71.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 13A
2021-08-16 19:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161735 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM GRACE SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI... ...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE IN HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 71.6W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are possible later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 71.6 West. Grace is now moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will move over or near the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti this afternoon and tonight, and then pass between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is expected to become a tropical storm again by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti this afternoon into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the southern coast of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Grace Graphics
2021-08-16 16:56:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 14:56:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 14:56:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-16 16:55:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 161455 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters were both able to locate a center for Grace--probably the most well-defined center observed over the past few days. That center now appears to be moving onshore along the Barahona Peninsula of the Dominican Republic as we speak. The planes measured several possible areas of tropical-storm-force winds from the SFMR, however these observations have not been supported by the more reliable 925-mb flight-level winds for weaker systems, which were only as high as 38 kt, and warrant maintaining the 30-kt initial intensity. Dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 1007 mb. The aircraft fixes confirm that Grace is moving westward, or 280/13 kt. High pressure over the western Atlantic is forecast to slide westward over the southeastern United States during the next several days, which should keep Grace on a westward to west- northwestward trajectory for the entire 5-day forecast period. This scenario is agreed upon by all of the available track models, and the new NHC track forecast has only been nudged slightly southward from the previous forecast based on the latest consensus aids. Grace's intensity forecast remains complicated by interaction with land and the possibility of some westerly shear during the forecast period. However, the southern shift in the forecast track takes the center of Grace more definitively over very warm 30 degrees Celsius waters in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Therefore, gradual strengthening is anticipated while Grace approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico. Once the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the shear appears to decrease, and conditions there will likely be conducive for additional strengthening. In fact, many of the models, including the consensus aids, bring Grace to hurricane intensity, and the NHC intensity forecast has therefore been bumped upward, bringing Grace very near hurricane strength by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola today and tonight, and over Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba on Tuesday, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and other portions of the southern coast of Cuba Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is a increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.7N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 18.2N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...S COAST OF HAITI 24H 17/1200Z 18.8N 76.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 19.4N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 20.1N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 20.9N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 21.6N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...N COAST OF YUCATAN 96H 20/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 23.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-16 16:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF GRACE JUST ABOUT TO CROSS THE BARAHONA PENINSULA OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 the center of Grace was located near 17.7, -71.4 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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