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Tropical Depression Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2021-08-16 04:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 969 FONT12 KNHC 160240 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE BEATA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Grace Graphics

2021-08-16 01:49:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 23:49:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 21:30:17 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Depression Grace (AT2/AL072021)

2021-08-16 01:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON MONDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Aug 15 the center of Grace was located near 17.1, -68.1 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 10A

2021-08-16 01:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 152348 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 68.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located by an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 68.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday. The aircraft reported that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday and Monday night. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today into Tuesday: Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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