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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 7A
2021-08-15 07:44:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150544 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...GRACE CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 63.7W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Samana * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 63.7 West. Grace is now moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is expected to pass near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, near or over the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and then move near or over Haiti Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater Antilles Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning, in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and in the Dominican Republic tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Tuesday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could affect portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-15 04:58:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150258 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 Grace is a poorly organized tropical cyclone. Trying to pinpoint the center of the storm over the last 6-12 hours has been a challenge, even with the help of earlier NOAA aircraft, surface observations, and radar data from Guadalupe. Earlier data from the NOAA aircraft reconnaissance Twin Doppler Radar showed that the mid-level center was tilted significantly further southeast relative to the poorly-defined low-level circulation. Around 0000 UTC, multiple reporting stations in Guadalupe showed a wind shift to the west, and there were some skeletal bands seen on the nearby Guadalupe radar ahead of a convective squall propagating ahead, which is currently producing the coldest cloud tops with Grace. Given all of these data, the center of Grace is estimated to have passed by just north of Guadalupe over the last few hours. Despite the higher subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity was kept at 35 kt for this advisory given the lackluster wind data from the earlier NOAA aircraft reconnaissance mission. Grace appears to have reformed a bit further North tonight, and also now appears to be on a somewhat slower west-northwest heading, at 285/17 kt. There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance, even in the short-term, which is likely related to the current disorganized nature of Grace. In general, Grace is expected to maintain a west-northwestward motion and gradually slow down over the next 24-36 hours. A strong low- to mid-level ridge poleward of Grace should then maintain this west-northwest heading through the remainder of the forecast. A lot of the track uncertainty in the latter part of the forecast appears to be related to the future intensity of the storm, and both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles show a large north-to-south spread with stronger members tracking further north and weaker members tracking further south. For now, the NHC track forecast has been shifted north of the previous track, mostly related to the further north initial position, and is in close agreement with the HFIP corrected-consensus approach (HCCA) model. Grace appears to finally be slowing down a bit this evening, but will still need to slow down a bit more in order to allow the low- to mid-level centers to become better aligned. Because of this disjointed structure, only slow intensification is anticipated. The latest intensity guidance is a bit lower, and the NHC intensity guidance follows suit, with a peak intensity of 45-kt in 24 hours. Thereafter, it appears likely that Grace will have to deal with significant land interaction over Hispaniola and weakening is indicated by 48 hours. If Grace survives, it is possible some modest intensification could occur in the latter part of the forecast period. The intensity forecast remains closely tied to the track forecast, and any deviations to the north or south could allow Grace to stay stronger than indicated in this forecast. However, it also remains distinctly possible that Grace could dissipate before the end of this 5-day forecast due to the forecasted land interaction. As previously mentioned, the exact track of the center and the intensity of the system will likely not be as important as the heavy rainfall that is forecast to fall across the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles during the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern parts of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida next week, but forecast uncertainty remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 16.8N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.3N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 18.1N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO 36H 16/1200Z 18.7N 69.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA 48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA 60H 17/1200Z 20.2N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 18/0000Z 21.2N 75.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 23.7N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 25.6N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-15 04:57:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 02:57:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 03:28:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-15 04:57:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 150257 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 18(18) 8(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X 30(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PONCE PR 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 39(39) 10(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AGUADILLA PR 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 32(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 6 44(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) VIEQUES PR 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 8 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAINT CROIX 34 52 12(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SAINT CROIX 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ST EUSTATIUS 34 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ANTIGUA 34 64 X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-15 04:56:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED GRACE NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS A PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 14 the center of Grace was located near 16.8, -62.4 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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