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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-08-16 13:56:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161156 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING GRACE... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 70.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are likely later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 70.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will pass near the southern coast of Hispaniola today and tonight, and then between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Slow strengthening is expected to begin by Tuesday. Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic today, in Haiti today into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica and the southern portions of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Grace Graphics
2021-08-16 10:48:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 08:48:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 09:29:28 GMT
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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-08-16 10:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 930 WTNT42 KNHC 160848 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The structure and organization of Tropical Depression Grace has changed little over the past several hours. An earlier ASCAT-B overpass showed that the circulation is elongated from the NE-SW, with peak winds of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated Grace a few hours ago, and indicated that the cyclone refuses to make the decrease in forward speed and turn to the west-northwest that most of the guidance has been calling for. The aircraft also measured peak flight level winds of 37 kt at 925 mb, which equates to about 28 kt at the surface. Although there were some SFMR vectors of tropical storm force, those winds were sampled in heavy rainfall and were likely not representative of the actual surface winds. Based on this data, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt for this advisory. Grace is moving toward the west, or 275/13 kt. The forecast models continue to make a shift to the south, as they are coming into very good agreement on maintaining a strong mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone throughout the forecast period. The latest track forecast was adjusted a little south of the previous one through the first couple of days of the forecast, with a larger shift to the south farther out in time. This forecast track remains to the north of the track consensus, so if the track models remain consistent, additional adjustments to the south will likely be made in the next forecast cycle. The evolution of the forecast track of Grace is having major implications on the future intensity of the cyclone. It is becoming more likely that the system will track over only the southern portion of Hispaniola, which would result in a lesser disruption of Grace's circulation. Furthermore, the more southern track would bring the cyclone over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean beginning on Tuesday. The environment over that portion of the Caribbean is not all that hostile, with about 10-15 kt of northerly shear being the main inhibiting factor for intensification. By midweek, Grace may interact with the Yucatan Peninsula, which should limit strengthening or perhaps weaken the system depending on the track. Once over the western Gulf of Mexico, late in the forecast period, some additional strengthening is expected, although the wind shear is forecast to increase slightly during that time frame. The latest NHC intensity forecast was raised slightly to reflect the additional time expected over water. However, this forecast is a little lower than most of the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola today and tonight. 3. There is a risk of some wind and rainfall impacts across southeastern Cuba and Jamaica beginning Tuesday morning, and the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.4N 70.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.9N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.6N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 19.3N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 20.1N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 20.8N 83.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 21.6N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 22.6N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 23.4N 96.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-08-16 10:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 932 FONT12 KNHC 160848 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE BEATA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-16 10:47:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160847 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 70.2W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 70.2W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 69.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 72.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.6N 74.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.3N 77.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.1N 80.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.8N 83.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.6N 86.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 22.6N 91.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 23.4N 96.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 70.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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