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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 4

2014-06-10 16:42:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 101442 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 Inner-core thunderstorm activity has increased during the past several hours and two overnight ASCAT passes indicate that the radius of maximum winds has contracted down to about 25 nmi, which is more than a 50 percent decrease from this time yesterday. The advisory intensity estimate of 40 kt is based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of T2.9/43 kt from UW-CIMSS, T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, and T2.0/30 kt from SAB, plus the appearance of a partial mid-level eye noted in 1237 UTC TRMM microwave imagery. The initial motion estimate is 275/04 kt. Both the track forecast and reasoning remain unchanged. Cristina appears to have begun to move out of a region of weak steering currents, and the cyclone is expected to move steadily westward along the southern periphery of a building deep-layer subtropical ridge located to its north. On Day 2, the cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward at a faster forward speed as Cristina strengthens and becomes a more vertically deep system that will be influenced by stronger deep-layer easterly steering flow. The NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and follows the consensus model TVCE. A large nocturnal thunderstorm complex that developed over central Mexico has ejected a large band of southward-moving cirrus outflow that appears to have temporarily increased the northerly shear across Cristina overnight. However, that thunderstorm complex has dissipated and water vapor imagery and satellite-derived winds indicate that the upper-level shear has abated over the past several hours. As a result, the environmental shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to weaken today and continue to decrease through at least the 72-hour period. This should allow for Cristina to gradually strengthen despite being embedded within a relatively dry mid-level moisture environment. By 96 hours and beyond, the cyclone is forecast to move into a thermodynamically unfavorable environment, over SSTs cooler than 26C, and encounter increasing southwesterly shear, a combination that should induce gradual to possible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the multi-model consensus IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 15.5N 102.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.6N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 15.7N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 15.9N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 16.4N 107.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 17.7N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 18.8N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 19.8N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)

2014-06-10 16:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 the center of CRISTINA was located near 15.5, -102.9 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 4

2014-06-10 16:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 101439 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 ...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 102.9W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A CONTINUED WESTERLY MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 4

2014-06-10 16:39:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 101438 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 102.9W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 102.9W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.6N 103.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.7N 105.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.4N 107.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 18.8N 112.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 19.8N 115.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 102.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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