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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Graphics

2014-06-10 05:07:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2014 02:37:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2014 03:03:46 GMT

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 2

2014-06-10 04:36:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100236 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 Although the intensity of the deep convection has not changed significantly during the last several hours, the cyclone has better defined features with thunderstorms consolidating near the center and fragmented bands to the east and west of the center. The initial intensity estimate is 35 kt, based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Cristina. Cristina has a few days to gain additional strength while the environmental factors remain generally favorable, and the models are in fairly good agreement in showing Cristina being at or near hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours. Beyond a few days, the system is expected to move into a drier airmass with stronger southwesterly shear, and over marginal sea surface temperatures. These conditions should end the strengthening phase, and ultimately cause Cristina to weaken. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN for the first 3 days of the forecast period, and then lies lower than consensus closer to the LGEM guidance at days 4 and 5 when environmental conditions are expected to become more hostile. The storm had been drifting northwestward most of the day, but the latest satellite images suggest that Cristina is likely now moving slowly westward. This westward turn is in response to a building mid-level ridge to the northwest of the storm, and that feature should keep Cristina on a westward to west-northwestward path away from the coast of Mexico during the next several days. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one in the short term, and then is nudged northward trending toward the latest guidance. Given the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, the Government of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches or warnings along the coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 15.5N 102.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 15.5N 102.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 16.0N 106.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 17.0N 109.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 18.1N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)

2014-06-10 04:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 9 the center of CRISTINA was located near 15.5, -102.2 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 2

2014-06-10 04:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 100235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 102.2W ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.2 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2014-06-10 04:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 100235 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0300 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) L CARDENAS 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ACAPULCO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 15(39) 2(41) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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