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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 7

2014-06-11 10:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 110831 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.1W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 45SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.1W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.3N 105.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.7N 106.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.4N 108.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.6N 111.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 19.2N 113.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.6N 114.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 104.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Graphics

2014-06-11 05:08:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2014 02:33:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2014 03:03:47 GMT

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 6

2014-06-11 05:05:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 110305 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.9W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.9W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.4N 105.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.5N 107.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.2N 109.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.7N 111.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 19.6N 113.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 103.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 6

2014-06-11 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110233 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 Cristina is intensifying this evening. The compact central dense overcast has become more circular, and hints of an eye have been apparent in geostationary satellite images. The initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with unanimous Dvorak classifications of 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. Although the curved bands beyond the inner-core region remain fragmented, a considerable amount of lightning has been occurring in a rain band located about 120 n mi to the south-southwest of the center. Recent research has documented that lightning in the outer bands of the tropical cyclone circulation is often a precursor of significant intensification. The only apparent factor that could limit strengthening during the next couple of days is mid-level dry air, which has been an issue for Cristina during the past day or so. In about 3 days, Cristina is expected to move into an environment of stronger southwesterly shear and over cooler waters, which should end the strengthening trend and cause the cyclone to weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, and is pretty close to the intensity model consensus IVCN. Cristina has wobbled a little south of due west during the past 6 hours, and the latest initial motion estimate is 265/5. A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so while the cyclone remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. After that time, a turn to the northwest is predicted when the ridge weakens and shifts eastward. The NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one, and close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 15.2N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 15.4N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 16.5N 107.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 17.2N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 18.7N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 19.6N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)

2014-06-11 04:31:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 the center of CRISTINA was located near 15.2, -103.9 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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