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Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-11-19 21:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192032 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 A few convective cells continue to pulse over 100 n mi northeast of Polo's center, but overall the cyclone has not produced persistent, organized deep convection since yesterday evening. Therefore, Polo is being designated as a remnant low. A recent ASCAT pass sampled the eastern part of Polo's circulation and showed winds around 25 kt, so it is assumed that 30-kt winds are still occurring closer to the center. Moderate westerly shear, marginally warm waters, and a dry environment should cause Polo's winds to gradually decrease, and the circulation is expected to open up into a trough by 36 hours, per the latest global model guidance. Polo is moving just south of due west (265/10 kt), steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. This general motion is expected to continue until the low dissipates, and the NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 20/0600Z 16.9N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-11-19 21:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 192031 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.3W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.3W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.9N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 121.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Polo Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-11-19 15:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191433 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Polo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 Occasional bursts of deep convection have been developing to the east and northeast of Polo's center since yesterday evening, but none have lasted for more than about an hour or two. ASCAT-C data received after the scatterometer pass noted in the previous advisory did not explicitly show tropical-storm-force winds, suggesting that Polo continues to weaken, and the most recent Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are 2.0. For these reasons, Polo is now assumed to be a 30-kt tropical depression. Polo has not maintained enough organized convection to be considered a tropical cyclone for the last 12 to 15 hours, and if sustained convection does not redevelop soon, the system will likely be declared a remnant low later this afternoon. The remnant low is expected to continue weakening due to westerly shear, only marginally warm waters, and dry air, and it is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner. Polo is being steered westward (275/10 kt) to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. Once Polo becomes a remnant low, the shallow circulation should take on a south-of-due-west motion in about 24 hours, continuing that trajectory until it dissipates. This pattern is shown by nearly all the reliable track models, and the NHC forecast lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 17.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.1N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0000Z 16.7N 126.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Polo Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-11-19 15:33:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 191433 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 120.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 120.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.1N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.7N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 120.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-11-19 09:48:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190848 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 Polo has been devoid of deep convection near the center for more than 6 hours. However, a narrow band of convection with cloud tops to -60 to -70 deg C has recently developed in the northeastern quadrant 30-40 nmi from the center, in the same location where a 0439Z partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated a few surface wind vectors of 34-35 kt. Therefore, Polo is being maintained as a tropical storm with an intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is now 280/10 kt. A low-/mid-level ridge situated to the north of Polo should steer the small cyclone generally westward until it dissipates in a day or two. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a tad south of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA. Over the next two days, Polo is forecast to move into a less favorable environment consisting of moderate-to-strong westerly shear, a drier and more stable air mass, and sea-surface temperatures less than 26 deg C. As a result, convection should steadily weaken, causing Polo to gradually spin down and become a remnant low by this afternoon or tonight, and dissipate by 60 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.1N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 17.1N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1800Z 17.0N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0600Z 16.6N 128.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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