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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-04-26 16:37:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 261437 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 1500 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 118.8W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 118.8W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.3N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.8N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 118.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-04-26 09:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 771 WTPZ41 KNHC 260735 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 200 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Earlier NRL WindSAT microwave imagery and GOES16 ProxyVIS showed the depression's ill-defined center of circulation still displaced well to the northwest of a small, shapeless patch of deep convection. A 0446 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass revealed a couple of 30 kt winds to the east of the surface center. Accordingly, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Low to mid-level drier air indicated by the SHIPS intensity guidance, and 20-25 kt of westerly shear shown in the UW-CIMSS shear product, are certainly prohibiting convective development. An intruding dry, stable air mass, increasing shear, and gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures should induce a weakening trend soon and ultimately cause the cyclone to become a remnant low by tonight. The large-scale and regional guidance all show the depression dissipating no later than Monday night. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/7 kt. A Low to mid-tropospheric ridge anchored north of the depression should influence a continued northwestward motion through today. Afterward, the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a shallow remnant low, and move westward in the low-level easterly flow until it dissipates. The new official forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and is primarily based on the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 15.2N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 15.9N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 16.4N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 16.8N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-04-26 09:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 260732 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 0900 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.2W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.2W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 117.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.9N 119.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.4N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-04-26 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 260232 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 800 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Deep convection has increased a little in association with Tropical Depression One-E during the past several hours. However, visible satellite images and an AMSR2 microwave pass from a few hours ago indicate that the low-level center is displaced to the northwest of the main area of showers and thunderstorms. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, following the Dvorak classification from TAFB. This estimate is also in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates from CIMSS ADT and SATCON. It is also worth noting that dry air is wrapping into the circulation of the depression, which is likely limiting its convective organization. Although some very short-term strengthening can't be ruled out and it is possible that the cyclone could briefly become a tropical storm, weakening should begin on Sunday. The system will be moving into an environment of strong westerly shear, drier air, and progressively cooler waters. These conditions should cause the system to become a remnant low by Sunday night, when the shear is expected to be near 30 kt and SSTs around 24 C beneath the cyclone. All of the models show the the depression dissipating entirely early next week. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from earlier today. The depression is currently moving northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge, and it should continue moving in that direction for the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to be a shallow remnant low, and it expected to move westward in the low-level trade wind flow until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 14.8N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 15.6N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.3N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1200Z 16.7N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0000Z 17.0N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-04-26 04:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 260231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 0300 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.5W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.5W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.6N 118.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.3N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.7N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 117.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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