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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-09-11 19:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 111734 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene, both located over the central Atlantic Ocean. Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the northwestern and central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues to shows signs of organization. In addition, surface observations indicate that pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along with wind and satellite data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida. This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, and it could become a tropical depression while it is near South Florida tonight. But if not, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days, and interests there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf coast, should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little bit over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near a surface trough of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located a few hundred miles south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another area of disturbed weather is located just off of the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions could support development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-09-11 17:26:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

885 ABNT20 KNHC 111526 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1125 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion and development potential for the area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the northwestern and central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues to shows signs of organization. In addition, surface observations indicate that pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along with wind data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida. This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The disturbance could become a tropical depression while it is near South Florida tonight, but it is more likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days, and interests there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf coast, should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another large area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is beginning to move off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 
 

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-09-11 13:41:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 111141 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located about 400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains minimal. Some development of this system, however, is still possible during the next day or two before it interacts with, and possibly becomes absorbed by, a larger weather disturbance to its east-southeast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: north weather pacific eastern

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-09-11 13:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 111140 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A surface trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend from the northwestern and central Bahamas eastward a few hundred miles over the western Atlantic. This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another large area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is beginning to move off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-09-11 07:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 110542 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida later today and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

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