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Hurricane Ida Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-27 22:51:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 20:51:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-27 22:49:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 20:49:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 21:29:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-27 22:49:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 272048 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 A 1656 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed that Nora still does not have a tight inner core and instead has a 30-35 n mi region of winds 20 kt or less. However, the pass did show maximum wind vectors a little over 50 kt, so the storm has been strengthening, and maximum winds are estimated to be 55 kt. This is supported by Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. A slight adjustment was made to Nora's initial position based on the scatterometer data, but the storm is still moving toward the northwest (310/10 kt). Nora is expected to maintain a motion toward the northwest or north-northwest as it heads in the direction of a weakness in the subtropical ridge which has developed over the U.S. southern Rockies and northern Mexico. The track guidance envelope appears to have tightened up compared to the past few days, with nearly all the model trackers showing Nora's center passing offshore just west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, in about 24 hours and then continuing northwestward either across the waters of the Gulf of California or inland over Baja California Sur. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward from this morning's forecast, but this is mainly due to the adjustment of the storm's initial position. This track is very close to the HCCA and other consensus aids. Nora's convective structure appears to be responding to a decrease in northeasterly shear, which is analyzed to be out of the northeast at 10-15 kt. This shear is forecast to decrease to 10 kt or less by tonight. Although Nora's broad structure could limit the storm's rate of strengthening, warm waters and upper-level divergence should allow it to become a hurricane over the next day or so. After that time, Nora's intensity will be strongly modulated on whether its center moves over mainland Mexico or the Baja California peninsula. If the center remains over water, as is shown in the official forecast, then environmental conditions appear conducive for Nora to remain as a hurricane for several more days, and the NHC forecast still closely follows the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models. That said, there is still greater-than- normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast after 48 hours. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 15.5N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 18.3N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 22.9N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 23.9N 109.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 25.9N 110.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 28.4N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-08-27 22:49:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 272048 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 42(65) 3(68) 1(69) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 45(70) 3(73) 1(74) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 3(30) 1(31) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 15(47) 1(48) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 6(30) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 11(27) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 4(21) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 12(28) 1(29) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18(22) 3(25) X(25) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 8( 9) 53(62) 19(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 19(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 29(43) 11(54) 1(55) X(55) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 6(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) P VALLARTA 34 X 12(12) 35(47) 1(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 105W 50 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 6 53(59) 5(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MANZANILLO 34 29 28(57) 2(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 11 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ZIHUATANEJO 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 8(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-27 22:48:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 the center of Nora was located near 15.5, -104.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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