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Tropical Storm Ida Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-27 16:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 271448 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 82.1W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has replace the Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Warning for the Isle of Youth, and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 82.1 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass near or over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba later today, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on Sunday. Reports from Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast today and Ida is expected to be a hurricane when it nears western Cuba later today. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported on Cayman Brac and a wind gust to 41 mph (67 km/h) has been observed on Cayo Largo, Cuba, within the past hour or two. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac through early this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area by later this afternoon and evening, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next couple of hours on the Isle of Youth. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-08-27 16:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 271448 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NAPLES FL 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 10(19) 3(22) X(22) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 14(22) 3(25) X(25) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 16(26) 2(28) 1(29) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 25(50) 6(56) 1(57) X(57) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 27(39) 5(44) X(44) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 36(54) 5(59) X(59) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 40(61) 6(67) X(67) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 4(31) X(31) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 45(49) 27(76) 2(78) X(78) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 30(44) 1(45) 1(46) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 1(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 37(39) 53(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 61(68) 8(76) X(76) X(76) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 9(52) 1(53) X(53) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 10(44) 2(46) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 46(74) 5(79) X(79) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 5(49) X(49) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 2(26) X(26) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 59(70) 18(88) 1(89) X(89) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 27(65) 2(67) X(67) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 26(44) 2(46) X(46) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 55(70) 9(79) X(79) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 6(47) X(47) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 54(80) 6(86) X(86) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 43(50) 5(55) X(55) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 2(30) X(30) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) 12(57) X(57) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 53(65) 8(73) 1(74) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 7(40) X(40) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 56(70) 7(77) X(77) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 7(45) X(45) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 26(48) 4(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) 1(24) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 9(46) 1(47) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 8(51) X(51) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) 5(54) 1(55) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 7(33) X(33) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 5(29) X(29) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 6(36) X(36) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 4(26) X(26) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 5(27) X(27) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 13 17(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 34 41 4(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 50 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ISLE OF PINES 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-27 16:48:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 990 WTNT24 KNHC 271448 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON...LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W...OVER WESTERN CUBA MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 82.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-27 16:36:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 14:36:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 14:36:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-27 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 As was expected, vertical shear appears to be decreasing, with deep convection expanding over Nora's surface center just within the past few hours. Water vapor imagery also suggests an expansion of upper-level outflow to the north of the storm. Since Dvorak data-T numbers are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, Nora's intensity is being held at that value for now. Nora has turned toward the northwest (310/10 kt) in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge that has developed over the U.S. southern Rockies. Little change to this steering pattern is expected during the next several days, and Nora is forecast to move toward the northwest or north-northwest for the entire 5-day forecast period. Compared to the last few days, nearly all the track models now have Nora's center staying just offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, in about 36 hours. The GFS and HMON model fields still show a landfall in that area, but their interpolated trackers--which have been shifted to begin at our estimated initial position--also stay just offshore. After 36 hours, the track guidance has shifted slightly eastward, and the new NHC track forecast now keeps Nora's center over water up into the Gulf of California from days 2 through 5. That will be a small needle to thread, however, and any future shifts in the models could increase the risk of impacts to either the Baja California peninsula or the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico through the middle of next week. SHIPS model diagnostics indicate that the northeasterly deep-layer shear over Nora has decreased to about 15 kt, and this shear is expected to decrease further to below 10 kt in about 12 hours. Along with warm waters of about 29 degrees Celsius and significant upper-level divergence (at least for the next 36 hours), these conditions should foster strengthening, and Nora is still forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. The part of the forecast after 48 hours remains uncertain depending on how much Nora interacts with land, but based on the new forecast that keeps the cyclone over water in the Gulf of California (where SSTs are even warmer -- around 31 degrees Celsius), Nora could maintain hurricane intensity through at least day 4. The NHC intensity forecast continues to hedge on the side of the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models, since most of the other models show Nora's center interacting with land to at least some degree. The new forecast has necessitated an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning northward to San Blas, Mexico, and the issuance of a new Tropical Storm Watch north of there to Mazatlan. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 15.4N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.3N 105.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 17.9N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.7N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 23.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 26.1N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 28.4N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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