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Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-08-02 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 021432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 116.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.3N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-02 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 021432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-07-31 22:37:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 20:37:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 21:22:39 GMT
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hilda
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-07-31 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 312036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 After strengthening quickly overnight and early this morning, Hilda's intensity appears to have leveled off for now. There continues to be hints of an eye feature in satellite images and deep convection is organized in curved bands around that feature. The latest Dvorak estimates are 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 4.0/65 kt from SAB, and 4.1/67 kt from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. A recent ASCAT-B overpass showed a maximum wind of around 50 kt southeast of the center, but the coarse resolution of the instrument is unlikely to capture the storm's true intensity. Based on a combination of this data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt, but this could be a little conservative and Hilda is very near hurricane strength. The aforementioned ASCAT data was also used to adjust the wind radii inward at the initial and short range forecast times. Steady strengthening seems likely during the next 24 to 36 hours as the environment remains generally favorable, consisting of relatively warm SSTs, low wind shear, and a high amount of moisture. The NHC intensity forecast during that time period is the same as before and lies at the high end of the model guidance, near HCCA. Beyond 36 hours, however, decreasing moisture and progressively cooler SSTs should end the strengthening trend and gradually cause weakening during the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope for that portion of the forecast. Hilda is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A subtropical ridge should keep the storm on a general west-northwest heading during the next several days, but the more skillful models like the GFS and ECMWF show some interaction with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and a low pressure area to the east. These interactions will likely cause some slow downs and an erratic motion at times during the forecast period. There continues to be a fair amount of spread in the models, especially in terms of forward speed, and the new forecast is a little to the north of the previous based on the latest guidance. This track prediction is slightly slower than the consensus aids, and has given more weight to the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 14.1N 117.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.5N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.5N 122.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 16.0N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 16.8N 125.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.8N 126.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 19.3N 129.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 20.4N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-07-31 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE VERY SOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 the center of Hilda was located near 14.1, -117.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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hilda
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