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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-03 22:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032039 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Deep convection in Hilda's central dense overcast has been weakening today, with the low-level center still on the northern side of the cloud mass. Satellite classifications have decreased since the last advisory, and a partial ASCAT pass around 1700 UTC showed maximum winds of about 45 kt. Assuming some undersampling and that the eastern radius-of-maximum winds could have been missed, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. A combination of shear, cool water temperatures, and a more stable environment should keep Hilda on a weakening trend throughout the forecast period. Model guidance continues to be in very good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one. Hilda is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday and dissipate as a trough this weekend well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The storm continues moving northwestward, now a little slower at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over southern California should build westward during the next few days as a mid-latitude trough along 135W moves northward out of the area. This pattern is expected to turn Hilda west-northwestward tomorrow and accelerate the cyclone in that direction as it encounters stronger low- to mid-level flow. Model guidance is a shade faster and to the left of the last cycle, and the new NHC track forecast follows that trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.8N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-03 22:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 20:38:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 21:23:15 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-03 22:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA STARTING TO SUCCUMB TO COOL WATERS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 3 the center of Hilda was located near 17.8, -125.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 17
2021-08-03 22:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 032038 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...HILDA STARTING TO SUCCUMB TO COOL WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 125.0W ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 125.0 West. Hilda is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This motion is forecast to continue through tonight, with a turn toward the west-northwest expected on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda is likely to become a tropical depression on Thursday and a remnant low on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-08-03 22:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 032038 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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