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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-08-04 22:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 042033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 3 15(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-08-04 22:33:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 042033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 128.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 128.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 131.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.4N 136.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 138.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 128.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-04 16:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 14:35:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 15:22:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-08-04 16:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Hilda continues to weaken early this morning due to cool sea-surface temperatures (SST) and modest northerly vertical wind shear. The current intensity is estimated to be 35 kt based on an average of subjective satellite classifications of T2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates of 31 kt and 41 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. Hilda is currently moving over sub-25C SSTs with even cooler water and increasing westerly wind shear still ahead of the cyclone. As a result of these unfavorable environmental parameters, Hilda is forecast to weaken further, becoming a depression later today and a remnant low by late tonight or early Thursday. Dissipation is expected by late Friday or Saturday well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. Hilda has been moving west-northwestward or 295/08 kt. This general motion should continue into Thursday. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north of Hilda is expected to gradually build westward over the next several days, forcing the cyclone and its remnants more westward on Friday and Saturday. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.1N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 19.7N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.6N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 21.5N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 22.2N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 22.7N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-04 16:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 4 the center of Hilda was located near 19.1, -127.4 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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