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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 1
2021-07-30 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 302036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORMS WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 113.6W ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 113.6 West. Hilda is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and a general decrease in forward speed is predicted over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hilda is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-07-30 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 30 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 302036 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC FRI JUL 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 113.6W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 113.6W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.6N 115.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.2N 117.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.8N 119.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.9N 123.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.3N 124.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.6N 126.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.3N 129.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Felicia Graphics
2021-07-20 16:49:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 14:49:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 15:22:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 26
2021-07-20 16:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201449 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 After being devoid of deep convection for 9-12 hours overnight, Felicia managed to redevelop a small area of convection near and north of its estimated low-level center. However, this convective activity is poorly-organized and already appears to be waning. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates at 1200 UTC were T2.5/35 kt from SAB and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, while the latest objective ADT estimate was T1.5/25 kt. Given the earlier scatterometer data and that convection had increased somewhat since that time, the initial intensity is only being lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt for this advisory. The latest estimated motion continues to be south of due west but a little faster, at 260/14 kt. Felicia is primarily being steered by a large subtropical ridge to its north, which should maintain the cyclone on a west-southwest heading over the remainder of its lifespan. The latest NHC track forecast remains very similar to the previous one, but is a touch faster, in agreement with the most recent GFS and ECMWF forecasts. On the latest forecast track, Felicia is expected to move into the central Pacific basin later today, just after 2100 UTC. Despite the recent small convective burst, Felicia's large-scale environment remains dominated by moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear within a dry and stable airmass over 25-26 C sea-surface temperatures. Consequently, a good chunk of the deterministic model guidance (e.g., GFS/ECWMF/HWRF) depict Felicia struggling to produce much, if any, additional organized convection near its center. The official NHC intensity forecast shows Felicia weakening into a tropical depression later today and then degenerating into a remnant low by 24 hours, in close agreement with the multi-model consensus. The remnant low is then forecast to open up into a trough while moving well south of the Hawaiian islands by 60 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.8N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 15.3N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 14.7N 143.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z 14.1N 145.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 13.6N 148.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2021-07-20 16:47:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 201447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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