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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-08-03 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 032037 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 125.0W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 125.0W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 124.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 125.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.4N 127.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 130.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-03 16:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 14:37:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 14:37:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-08-03 16:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031436 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 There's been little change with the structure of Hilda overnight as deep convection continues to be mostly south of the center due to persistent northeasterly shear. The low-level eye feature in 37 GHz microwave data remains on the latest passes, but it isn't very deep because of the shear. A blend of the T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB, plus the UW-CIMSS SATCON, yields 60 kt as the initial wind speed. Hilda should weaken during the next several days, first primarily due to shear, then cool water temperatures and a more stable environment on Wed-Fri. Model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest forecast is close to the previous NHC advisory and the model consensus. Hilda should decay into a remnant low by Friday and dissipate as a trough this weekend well east of the Hawaii. The initial motion estimate, 315/7 kt, is the same as the previous advisory. Hilda is maintaining this motion as it is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over southern California. The global models are consistently building this ridge westward over the eastern Pacific during the next several days as a shortwave trough lifts out along 135W, causing Hilda to turn west-northwestward by Thursday. The only significant forecast difference is how quickly the cyclone moves, mostly in the latter stages, with more of the guidance showing a faster motion, perhaps because the models are showing a weaker Hilda being steered by the quicker low-level flow. The new NHC prediction shows that acceleration at long-range as well, near or just behind the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.5N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 18.2N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.8N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 21.6N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 22.3N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-08-03 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 031434 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 3 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-03 16:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA FORECAST TO LOSE STRENGTH THIS WEEK... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 3 the center of Hilda was located near 17.5, -124.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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