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Summary for Tropical Storm Andres (EP1/EP012021)
2021-05-10 16:41:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISORGANIZED ANDRES LIKELY TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon May 10 the center of Andres was located near 15.4, -109.4 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Andres Public Advisory Number 6
2021-05-10 16:41:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 101441 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Andres Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 ...DISORGANIZED ANDRES LIKELY TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 109.4W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 109.4 West. Andres is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the northwest and west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, followed by a westward motion on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later today, and Andres is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-05-10 16:40:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 101440 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 1500 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.4W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.4W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.8N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.4N 111.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.2N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Tropical Storm Andres Graphics
2021-05-10 10:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 May 2021 08:33:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 May 2021 08:33:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-05-10 10:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Andres remains a sheared tropical storm with a small ball of deep convection displaced just east of the partially exposed low-level center. All three scatterometer passes missed Andres. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on consensus subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and objective intensity estimates of 37 kt and 35 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. The initial motion estimate is 325/04 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track forecast of reasoning. The latest NHC track model guidance continues to show Andres moving slowly northwestward around the western edge of a deep-layer subtropical ridge while gradually weakening and becoming more vertically shallow. The ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to strengthen and build westward over the next few days, which is expected to gradually nudge Andres west-northwestward on Tuesday and westward on Wednesday. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and remains along the southern edge of the guidance envelope between the GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models, and the HCCA and GFEX consensus track models. Despite the ragged looking cloud pattern depicted in infrared satellite imagery, night-viz and passive microwave satellite data indicate that the low-level circulation has actually improved a little since the previous advisory. However, the combination of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and entrainment of drier and more stable low- to mid-level air from the west and northwest is expected to induce gradual weakening later today. Additional weakening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday as Andres moves over cooler sea-surface temperatures, with the cyclone expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by Thursday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially just and update of the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.7N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 16.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 16.0N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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