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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-05-09 22:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092035 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021 The convective cloud pattern of Andres is rather ragged-looking at this time, and the system continues to show little evidence of banding features. However the cyclone is producing some very cold cloud tops over the eastern portion of the circulation. A partial scatterometer pass did not show tropical-storm-force winds, but it is believed that these could be occuring in the strong convection to the east of the center. The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The environment ahead of Andres looks very hostile, with increasing west-southwesterly shear and dry air in the mid- to lower-troposphere. Therefore, a weakening trend should begin tomorrow and the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low in about 48 hours which is also indicated by the global model guidance. The scatterometer observations showed that the center was somewhat elongated zonally, but it appears to be a little south of the previously estimated track. Andres should move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next day or so, and then turn westward in 48-60 hours, following the low-level steering flow. The official track forecast is south of much of the model guidance on account of the more southward center location. This is not far from the latest GFS model solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 14.0N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 14.7N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-05-09 22:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 827 FOPZ11 KNHC 092034 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 2100 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 15(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Andres (EP1/EP012021)
2021-05-09 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun May 9 the center of Andres was located near 14.0, -108.5 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Andres Public Advisory Number 3
2021-05-09 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 092034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Andres Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021 ...ANDRES SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 108.5W ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a turn toward the west by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Monday, with the system becoming a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-05-09 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 092034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 2100 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 108.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 108.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.7N 109.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 108.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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