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Subtropical Storm Ana Public Advisory Number 1
2021-05-22 10:31:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220831 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ana Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORMS JUST NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 62.2W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 62.2 West. The storm is moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A continued slow and erratic motion is expected through tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but gradual weakening is expected tonight and Sunday. Ana is expected to dissipate in a couple of days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-05-22 10:31:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220831 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 0900 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 62.2W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 62.2W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 34.3N 62.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 35.1N 61.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.2N 59.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.9N 55.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 62.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-05-10 16:48:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 101448 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Andres continues to battle vertical wind shear this morning. Early visible satellite imagery indicates the broadened circulation of the cyclone is exposed and displaced to the southwest of a recent burst of deep convection. Overall, the convective coverage has noticeably decreased during the past several hours, with warming infrared cloud top temperatures noted where a convective band wrapped around the eastern semicircle overnight. A blend of the objective ADT and SATCON estimates with subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB supports holding the initial intensity at 35 kt. Hopefully, scatterometer data will become available this afternoon to better assess the intensity of Andres. The center of the cyclone was adjusted a bit northward this morning based on recent visible imagery, and its estimated motion is now 330/05 kt. A general northwestward motion is expected today as Andres moves around the western edge of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. As the cyclone spins down and becomes more vertically shallow, it should turn more west-northwestward and then westward under the influence of a building low-level ridge to its north. The forecast track has been nudged to the right of the previous forecast to account for the center adjustment, and the new track lies closer to the reliable consensus aids including HCCA. Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, along with drier and more stable low- to mid-level air approaching from the west, suggest a weakening trend is imminent. Andres is expected to become a tropical depression later today and then continue weakening through midweek as environmental conditions become increasingly hostile. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest the cyclone will become devoid of convection by tonight, and so this forecast shows Andres becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 15.4N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 16.4N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 16.2N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Andres Graphics
2021-05-10 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 May 2021 14:45:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 May 2021 14:45:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-05-10 16:43:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 101443 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 1500 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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