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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-11-19 03:33:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190233 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.3W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.3W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 117.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 119.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.3N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-11-18 21:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 While the cloud pattern was fairly well organized this morning, Polo provided a little surprise when the center popped out of the central dense overcast. The system has since developed deep convection near the center, so perhaps this was a temporary fluctuation but reflects marginal environmental conditions. The initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt as a blend of the satellite data, and unfortunately scatterometer data missed again for a more certain estimate. Polo probably will peak in intensity during the next 12 hours or so before a combination of higher shear and dry/stable air causes the storm to weaken and eventually become a remnant low on Friday. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, and there were no meaningful model outliers from the NHC prediction. At least the exposed center allowed for a more precise initial motion estimate, though it ended up about the same as before 285/10. Model guidance is tightly clustered on the storm turning westward tomorrow while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. The small cyclone will likely decay into a trough of low pressure by the weekend. Only cosmetic changes were made to the last forecast, which continues to lie near or just south of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 16.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 16.8N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.0N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 17.1N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Polo (EP1/EP212020)
2020-11-18 21:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM POLO CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM PST Wed Nov 18 the center of Polo was located near 16.5, -117.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Polo Public Advisory Number 5
2020-11-18 21:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 182031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM POLO CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 117.2W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 117.2 West. Polo is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west by Thursday and a westward motion through Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, with gradual weakening anticipated to begin on Thursday. Polo should degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-11-18 21:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 182031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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