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Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
2020-11-14 15:59:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 14:59:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 15:31:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-14 15:58:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 14:58:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 15:24:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-11-14 15:57:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 690 WTNT41 KNHC 141457 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Recent microwave satellite imagery and early morning visible pictures show that Iota remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the center located near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and recent satellite estimates. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Iota early this afternoon. Somewhat surprisingly Iota has not strengthened much since yesterday, which appears to be the result of some unexpected shear and its close proximity to the northwest coast of Colombia. The global models predict that the shear will relax soon, and that the system will be in quite favorable conditions for strengthening. The NHC forecast again calls for steady to rapid strengthening in the next 12-60 h once the storm organizes enough to take advantage of the expected favorable conditions. The updated NHC intensity is similar to the previous forecast and shows Iota at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. Although the center of Iota was relocated to the south and west of the earlier estimates, the long-term initial motion estimate is 255/4 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to build eastward to the north of Iota during the next day or two, and this feature should cause the cyclone to move westward to west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the next few days. This should bring the center near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua or Honduras in 2 to 3 days. After landfall, a west-southwestward motion is expected with Iota moving inland over Central America. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward, especially in the first 24 to 36 hours due to the more southward initial position. The NHC track lies close to the TVCA multi-model consensus, which is between the lastest global model interpolated trackers and the model fields. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the islands of San Andres and Providencia. 2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 12.7N 76.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 12.9N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 13.4N 78.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 13.9N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 14.4N 83.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1200Z 13.5N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-11-14 15:57:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 707 FONT11 KNHC 141457 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 6(22) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 12(34) 4(38) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 3(19) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 39(55) 7(62) 2(64) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 4(32) 1(33) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) 1(15) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 11(35) 2(37) X(37) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LIMON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COLON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-14 15:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... As of 10:00 AM EST Sat Nov 14 the center of Iota was located near 12.7, -76.2 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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