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Remnants of Iota Graphics
2020-11-18 16:58:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 15:58:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 15:58:07 GMT
Remnants of Iota Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-11-18 15:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 777 WTNT41 KNHC 181444 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Iota Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 Although the system still has broad mid-level rotation, synoptic observations from Central America show that the surface circulation of Iota has dissipated. Its remnants are located somewhere near El Salvador. Although the remnants of Iota are likely to move into the eastern North Pacific during the next day or so, the global models do not show regeneration of the system over that basin. Iota is still expected to produce very serious flash flooding and mudslides, with potentially catastrophic effects, over portions of Central America. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Iota. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from the remnants of Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 13.8N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF IOTA 12H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Remnants of Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-18 15:40:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES... As of 9:00 AM CST Wed Nov 18 the center of Iota was located near 13.8, -89.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Remnants of Iota Public Advisory Number 21
2020-11-18 15:40:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 181440 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Iota Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 ...IOTA DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 89.5W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WNW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Iota were located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 89.5 West. The remnants are moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: The remnants of Iota are expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Portions of Honduras, Guatemala, southern Belize: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). Portions of Nicaragua and El Salvador: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Remnants of Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-11-18 15:40:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 181440 PWSAT1 REMNANTS OF IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF IOTA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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