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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-11-13 21:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 132038 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 Theta appears to be holding its own still, with a large curved band feature characterizing the bulk of the deep convection, and a smaller area of convection intermittently developing over the center. Like yesterday, there has been a lack of observational data over the system's core since last night. However, since Theta's organization has not appeared to change much since that time, the initial intensity is being kept at a somewhat uncertain 50 kt. Theta is forecast to change little in intensity into tonight as the cyclone continues moving in a relatively low shear zone associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. By tomorrow, strong northerly shear is forecast to begin impacting the system while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. As a result, Theta is expected to spin down over the weekend, degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday, and dissipate by the middle of next week. Theta is moving eastward at around 9 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic. A turn to the east-southeast along with a gradual slowing of the forward motion is expected overnight and continuing through the weekend as the ridge weakens, and mid- to upper level northerly winds impart on the cyclone. Early next week, what remains of Theta are expected to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward as a mid-latitude cyclone passes to the north of the region. The NHC forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the various consensus aids. On the forecast track, the center of Theta is forecast to track very near the westernmost Canary Islands. However, the system is forecast to weaken to a remnant low before reaching those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 31.9N 22.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 31.7N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 31.4N 19.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 31.3N 18.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 31.7N 17.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 32.5N 17.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z 34.4N 17.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z 39.2N 12.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-11-13 21:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 132037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 22.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 480SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 22.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 23.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.7N 21.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.4N 19.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.3N 18.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.5N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.4N 17.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 39.2N 12.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 22.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-13 15:57:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 14:57:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 15:24:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-11-13 15:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 131456 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 Satellite images and microwave data this morning are showing that Theta finally has a more classic appearance of a tropical storm. There is a warming of cloud tops over the center, with a curved band of convection wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation. The scatterometer overpasses missed the core of the cyclone this morning. However, since the cloud pattern has not degraded since the previous advisory, the intensity is being held at 50 kt for this advisory. Theta is forecast to change little in intensity today as the cyclone continues moving in a low shear zone associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. By tomorrow, strong northerly shear is forecast to begin impacting the system while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. As a result, Theta is expected to spin down over the weekend, degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday, and dissipate by the middle of next week. Theta continues to move eastward at around 10 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic. A turn to the east-southeast along with a gradual slowing of the forward motion is expected later today and continuing through the weekend as the ridge weakens, and mid- to upper level northerly winds impart on the cyclone. Early next week, what remains of Theta are expected to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward as a mid-latitude cyclone passes to the north of the region. The NHC forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 31.7N 23.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 31.5N 22.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 31.3N 20.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 31.0N 19.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 31.1N 18.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 31.3N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z 32.8N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z 37.4N 15.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-13 15:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA STILL CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 3:00 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 the center of Theta was located near 31.7, -23.8 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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