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Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
2020-11-13 21:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 20:46:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 21:32:00 GMT
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iota
Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-13 21:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 132044 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Banding features over the eastern and southeastern portions of the cyclone's circulation have increased since this morning, and the overall organization of the system continues to quickly improve. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that there was a fairly large area of light winds near the center, and that the low-level center was displaced to the northwest of the mid-level center seen in visible satellite imagery. Since the system is still in its formative stage, the low-level center may reform closer to the mid-level feature, and the advisory position is a compromise between the low- and mid-level circulations. The earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of around 30 kt with several higher rain-inflated vectors. Based on the continued increase in organization, and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt. Iota becomes the 30th named storm of the recording-breaking 2020 hurricane season. The environment ahead of Iota appears to be quite conducive for intensification. The system will be moving over warm waters, in a moist atmosphere, and within an area of very low vertical wind shear. As a result, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Iota to reach hurricane status within 36 h, and now calls for the system to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. The NHC intensity foreast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, and the 70-kt increase in intensity over the next 72 hours is supported by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index that shows a nearly 60 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in intensity during that time period. The tropical storm has not moved very much today, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 255/3 kt. A strong mid-level ridge that extends across Florida and the western Atlantic is forecast to slide eastward over the next few days causing the cyclone to move faster toward the west or west-northwestward. The track guidance has come into a bit better agreement this afternoon, with only the HWRF showing a track farther north over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest consensus aids were very close to the previous official forecast, and no significant adjustments to the earlier track forecast were required. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night or early Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight or early Saturday. 2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway after Hurricane Eta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 13.8N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 13.7N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 76.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 13.9N 77.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 14.2N 79.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 14.6N 81.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 15.0N 82.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 15.2N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/1800Z 14.7N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-13 21:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM IOTA.. ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY... As of 4:00 PM EST Fri Nov 13 the center of Iota was located near 13.8, -74.3 with movement WSW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 2
2020-11-13 21:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 132044 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM IOTA.. ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 74.3W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch may be required for a portion of that area tonight or early Saturday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 74.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected to begin by late Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras late Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and the system is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Through Wednesday morning, Iota is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with local 12 inch totals, across portions of northern Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. Across Jamaica and southern Haiti, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 6 inches. Across remaining sections of Central America, the system has the potential to produce 20 to 30 inches of rain with a focus across northern Nicaragua and Honduras. This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will begin affecting portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-11-13 21:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 132044 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 13(31) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 13(27) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) 11(53) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 8(32) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 7(21) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 15(46) 3(49) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) 2(26) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20(27) 5(32) 1(33) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) 1(12) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) COLON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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