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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-11-11 15:44:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 111444 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 Theta's center continues to be devoid of deep convection, with the convective mass located primarily to the north of the center due to strong shear. A recent partial ASCAT overpass showed a slight decrease in the winds over the eastern semicircle. However, the pass did not sample the western portion of the circulation which has previously had the strongest winds. Based on the slightly lower ASCAT values, and the assumption that the rest of the vortex has spun down slightly due to the lack of convection over the center, the initial intensity is decreased to 50 kt. Theta is moving east-northeastward at 9 kt, steered by the southern part of the mid-latitude westerlies to the north of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern is expected to remain in place through much of the weekend. By early next week, the ridge is forecast weaken ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This would cause the cyclone to slow its forward motion temporarily before it gets picked up by the trough. The latest NHC forecast is near the previous one through 72 h, and is a little slower during days 4-5 due to the slowing of the guidance. This latest forecast is very near the clustered track consensus models. Despite the strong shear and cool water temperatures, the instability aloft should continue to support deep convection for at least the next few days. The shear is forecast to lessen somewhat in a day or so, but will still be relatively strong. Since the cyclone has been weakening slowly in the current environment, it is anticipated that the pace of weakening may lessen during the next few days with the decrease in shear. Beyond that time, the upper-level winds are forecast to become more northerly, and at about the same time the instability is forecast to decrease. These factors should cause any remaining convection to dissipate, with Theta likely becoming post-tropical by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly downward from the previous one mainly due to the lower initial intensity and is near the IVCN and HCCA consensus model forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 29.8N 33.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 30.3N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 30.7N 29.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 31.1N 27.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 31.5N 25.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 31.8N 23.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 31.9N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 32.2N 20.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 34.7N 19.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-11-11 15:44:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 111444 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-11-11 15:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 818 WTNT25 KNHC 111443 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 33.3W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 33.3W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 33.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.3N 31.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.7N 29.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.1N 27.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 25.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.8N 23.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.9N 22.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.2N 20.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 34.7N 19.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 33.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-11 12:43:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 11:43:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 09:24:29 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-11 12:43:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE ETA A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST... As of 7:00 AM EST Wed Nov 11 the center of Eta was located near 25.8, -83.8 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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