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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 47
2020-11-12 03:44:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120244 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS SOUND GEORGIA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BOCA GRANDE FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONITA BEACH TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA GRANDE TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS SOUND GEORGIA. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 83.4W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 83.4W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 83.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.7N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.7N 76.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 37.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-12 00:58:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 23:58:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 21:24:41 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-12 00:57:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... As of 7:00 PM EST Wed Nov 11 the center of Eta was located near 27.9, -83.4 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 46A
2020-11-12 00:57:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 112357 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 46A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 83.4W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, a C-MAN observing station at Venice Beach measured a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h). A Weatherflow site at the Skyway fishing pier recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h). Another Weatherflow site at Clam Bayou Nature Preserve, near St. Petersburg, just reported a gust of 51 mph (82 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) through Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast this evening through early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 46
2020-11-11 22:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 112143 CCA TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 46...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Corrected to show dissipated at 72H. Almost as quickly as Eta regained hurricane status, it then lost it shortly thereafter. Dry air entrainment eroded most of the significant convection around the center this afternoon until a slight resurgence recently developed. However, the overall convective pattern has changed little with the bulk of the convection located primarily northeast through southeast of the center. The last recon pass through Eta showed that the central pressure had increased to 990 mb. Recent Doppler velocities of around 70 kt between 5000-6000 ft east of the center supports surface winds of about 56-58 kt, so the 1800Z intensity of 60 kt will also be kept for the 21Z advisory intensity. The initial motion estimate is northward, or 010/10 kt. Eta is expected to move between north and north-northeastward tonight as the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge to the east. The new NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Eta turning northeastward after 12 hours, with the cyclone making landfall along the western coast of the northern Florida peninsula in the region from Cedar Key to Crystal River. Eta is then expected to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida as a weakening tropical cyclone, and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday morning or early afternoon. By 72 hours, if not sooner, Eta is forecast to merge with a frontal system off of the southeastern United States. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Eta will be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next 12 hours, with SSTs decreasing to less than 25 deg C just before the cyclone makes landfall along the Florida coast. The cooler waters, in conjunction with continued dry air entrainment and increasing westerly vertical wind shear, should result in at least gradual weakening until landfall occurs, followed by more rapid weakening as Eta moves over the northern Florida peninsula. Although the official forecast calls for Eta to be a tropical storm as it nears the northeast coast of Florida, a Tropical Watch or Warning are not required at this time since any tropical-storm-force will likely be occurring over water and not inland or along the coast due to Eta's poor convective structure that is expected at that time. Eta is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours due to even stronger wind shear, and dissipate by 72 hours due to frontal interaction. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected this evening and tonight along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible tonight and early Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta. 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward across west and central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in south Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding are expected across portions of west and north Florida through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 27.3N 83.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 28.6N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 30.4N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/0600Z 32.0N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 13/1800Z 33.8N 75.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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