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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-11-11 03:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 110247 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 Convection with Theta has waned some since the previous advisory, with the coldest cloud tops now focused in a band on the northeastern side of the partially exposed circulation. Despite this decrease in convective coverage, a 2304 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed a large region of 50 kt winds with at least one 55 kt barb. Accounting for a bit of undersampling of this instrument and maintaining continuity with the previous advisory, the maximum sustained winds have been kept at 60 kt for this advisory. Theta has slowed a bit tonight on the same east-northeast heading at 075/10 kt. The steering philosophy in the first part of the forecast has remained the same, with Theta moving off to the east-northeast while it continues to round the northern edge of a mid-level ridge providing the steering flow. The latest track guidance has slowed down the forward motion a bit more this cycle, and the new track forecast splits the difference between the previous forecast and some of the more reliable global model guidance that is slower and south of the NHC track. At the end of the forecast period both the ECMWF and GFS are forecasting Theta to become a shallow vortex as the remaining convection is stripped away, and this could cause Theta to slow down in the weaker low-level flow and move more slowly to the northeast at the end of the forecast period. Despite moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures over the next 48-72 h, upper-level temperatures are also forecast to cool per GFS-SHIPS, which should provide enough instability for moderate to deep convection. In addition, vertical wind shear may decrease some in the 48-72 h period as Theta remains in light flow along an upper-level trough axis. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance for the first three days, but now shows a faster weakening trend thereafter as vertical wind shear increases out of the north and strips the remaining convection away. At 5 days the forecast now makes Theta a remnant low since it appears the circulation will be too shallow to take advantage of more favorable baroclinic conditions that would ordinarily allow for extratropical transition. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 29.4N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 29.7N 34.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 30.1N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 30.5N 30.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 31.0N 27.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 31.7N 25.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 32.2N 23.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 32.8N 21.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 34.5N 20.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-11-11 03:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 110245 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-11 03:44:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 3:00 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 the center of Theta was located near 29.4, -35.5 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 5
2020-11-11 03:44:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 110244 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 ...THETA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 35.5W ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 35.5 West. Theta is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-11-11 03:44:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 110244 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.5W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 70SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.5W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.7N 34.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 75SE 110SW 165NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.1N 32.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 115SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.5N 30.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.0N 27.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.7N 25.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 25SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.2N 23.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 32.8N 21.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 34.5N 20.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 35.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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