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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-11-11 21:45:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 266 WTNT25 KNHC 112045 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 31.9W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 31.9W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 32.4W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.1N 30.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N 27.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.9N 25.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.1N 23.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.0N 22.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.8N 21.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 31.7N 19.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 35.1N 18.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 31.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 45A
2020-11-11 18:58:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 111758 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 45A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT ETA HAS WEAKENED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 83.7W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Peninsula today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by reconnaissance aircraft, Doppler radars, and satellites near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 83.7 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the coast of west-central coast of Florida today and tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday. Data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center. A wind gust to 40 mph (64 km/h) was recently reported in Venice Beach, Florida, while a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was reported by a buoy just offshore Venice Beach. The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) today, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West and central Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Friday. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will end across the Dry Tortugas this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-11 18:58:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 17:58:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 15:24:44 GMT
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Hurricane Eta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2020-11-11 17:04:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 16:04:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2020-11-11 17:04:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 16:04:31 GMT
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