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Summary for Subtropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-10 03:59:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE OPEN NORTHEAST ATLANTIC... ...RECORD-BREAKING 29TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... As of 3:00 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 the center of Theta was located near 28.8, -40.3 with movement E at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 1
2020-11-10 03:59:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 100259 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE OPEN NORTHEAST ATLANTIC... ...RECORD-BREAKING 29TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 40.3W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 40.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general east-northeast motion is expected to continue during the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours followed by little change in strength through Thursday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Subtropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-11-10 03:59:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 100259 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Over the past 12 h convection has slowly consolidated near the center of a non-tropical area of low pressure over the far northeast Atlantic. Earlier, there was a 2325 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed that the low-level circulation had become more detached from the warm frontal boundary located to its northeast. In addition, the ASCAT pass showed that winds have increased to near 45 kt on the southeast portion of the circulation near where coldest convective cloud tops were located. Both a 2137 UTC SSMIS and 2324 UTC AMSU microwave pass showed convective banding under the cirrus canopy near where the highest winds were observed. However, water vapor satellite imagery still shows the presence of a broad upper-level low tangled up with the low-level circulation embedded in the convection. Therefore, Theta has been designated as a subtropical storm with maximum wind of 45 kt. Theta has been on a near due east heading over the last 12 h at 90/13 kt. Currently the cyclone is located south of a broad deep-layer longwave trough. This trough is expected to bypass the cyclone to the east and Theta will primarily be steered by southwesterly flow on the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the Cape Verde islands. This flow will steer Theta slowly to the east-northeast over the next 3-5 days. The track guidance is in good agreement with this solution, with only minor differences in across-track spread. There are somewhat larger differences in the along-track spread related to different forward motion, but the latest NHC track forecast elected to stay close to the track consensus at this time. Thetas structure has evolved from a frontal cyclone to a subtropical cyclone, though a frontal boundary remains nearby on the northeast side of the circulation. This boundary is expected to gradually dissipate and Theta is expected to fully transition to a tropical storm in 24 h as convection erodes the upper-level cyclonic flow overhead. The maximum sustained winds were increased slightly in the first 12 h of the forecast but are kept at 50 kt through 120 h which is on the high end of the intensity guidance. Theta is the 29th named storm in the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, breaking the previous record of 28th named storms in 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 28.8N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 12H 10/1200Z 29.0N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 24H 11/0000Z 29.1N 36.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 11/1200Z 29.5N 34.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 30.0N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 30.5N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 31.0N 28.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 32.2N 24.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 33.3N 20.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-10 03:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 02:54:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 03:24:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 39
2020-11-10 03:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 100253 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020 Eta's convective structure appears to be gradually becoming better organized this evening. The center is located near the northern edge of a band that wraps around the southeastern and southern portions of the circulation. Recent subjective Dvorak data T-numbers were 3.0, which still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. With Eta's structure gradually improving and a forecast for the cyclone to remain over SSTs of around 28C and in generally low vertical wind shear conditions, some re-strengthening is likely during the next 24-36 hours. Although the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta remaining just below hurricane strength, there is a possibility that the storm will briefly regain hurricane status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico within the next day or so. By 48 hours, when the cyclone moves over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are likely to result in weakening, and like the previous forecast, the new NHC forecast indicates that Eta could weaken to a tropical depression by the end of the period. Some of the global model guidance suggests that Eta could weaken even faster than indicated below after 72 hours. Recent satellite fixes indicate that Eta is moving southwestward but a little slower than before at around 8 kt. Eta should slow its forward progress overnight and then meander over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as steering current collapse. In 36-48 hours, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United States. After 72 hours, the spread in the guidance increases when Eta is expected to be weaker and be steered by the low-level flow. Most of the guidance shows a northwestward to northward motion at that time period but have varying forward speed. The NHC track shows a slow north-northwest motion late in the period to account for these differences. There is lower than normal confidence in the latter portion of the track forecast given the large spread in the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida tonight. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida over the next several days. 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 23.2N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 22.8N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 23.4N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 25.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 26.6N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 27.0N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 29.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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