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Tropical Storm Odette Graphics
2021-09-18 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Sep 2021 02:35:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Sep 2021 03:22:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-18 04:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180233 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Satellite images indicate that west-southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Odette. Deep convection has been separating from the low-level circulation, and the closest area of thunderstorms is now more than 100 miles east of the center. The circulation is rather broad, but there is a clear center a couple of hundred miles off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. A very recent ASCAT pass showed some stronger winds in the thunderstorms more than a couple of hundred miles east of the low-level center, but its not clear if those winds are reliable and representative of the storm's true intensity. Hopefully more scatterometer data with be available soon to better assess Odette's strength. Although it appears that Odette has been meandering lately, a 12-hour average yields a northeastward motion at about 9 kt. The storm is expected to move faster northeastward or east-northeastward off the northeast U.S. and Atlantic Canada coasts this weekend as it moves in the mid-latitude flow. After that time, the models show a significant slow down as the cyclone cuts off from the progressive flow to the south or southeast of Newfoundland. Although there is quite a bit of spread in the models from days 3-5, almost all of the guidance shows the storm stalling by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. This forecast still lies to the north of the consensus aids, however. Odette is already beginning the process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone, and it will likely complete the transition by Saturday night when it is expected to be north of the Gulf Stream Current and merging with an approaching trough. The cyclone is likely to reach its peak intensity as an extratropical storm in 48-60 hours when the baroclinic dynamics are most favorable. Gradual weakening seems likely beyond that time. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in line with the majority of the guidance. As Odette becomes fully extratropical and gains latitude this weekend, the wind field is forecast to expand significantly. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 36.4N 71.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 37.8N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 39.4N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1200Z 41.0N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0000Z 42.3N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/1200Z 43.4N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0000Z 43.8N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z 44.3N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0000Z 44.8N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Odette (AT5/AL152021)
2021-09-18 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ODETTE POORLY ORGANIZED OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 the center of Odette was located near 36.4, -71.2 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Odette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-18 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 180233 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 4(19) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 2(14) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-18 04:32:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR ODETTE'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 71.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 71.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 71.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 37.8N 69.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 39.4N 65.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.0N 61.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 42.3N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 43.4N 53.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...300NE 270SE 210SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 43.8N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...390NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 44.3N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 44.8N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 71.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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