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Tropical Storm Odette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-18 10:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 180836 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) 1(17) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 7( 7) 31(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-18 10:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180836 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 Odette does not look very much like a tropical cyclone. All of the deep convection continues to be displaced well to the east of the poorly-defined center due to strong westerly shear. The circulation is elongated from southwest to northeast and contains multiple low-cloud swirls. The current intensity of the system is estimated to be near 40 kt based on earlier scatterometer observations, and these stronger winds are occurring in the convection over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, well removed from the center. Since the center is not so easy to locate, the motion is rather uncertain. However the system appears to be accelerating and the initial motion estimate is roughly 050/13 kt. Odette is embedded within the flow on the south side of a mid-latitude shortwave trough. This steering pattern should carry the system northeastward to east-northeastward for the next couple of days. Afterwards, the trough is predicted by the global models to cut off to the south of eastern Newfoundland. As a result, Odette is likely to turn a little south of east and decelerate in 3-4 days. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to begin moving northeastward on the east side of the cutoff low. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one but a little farther south around days 4 and 5. This is in good agreement with the latest corrected model consensus. The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Odette will get even stronger over the next few days. As the system will soon begin to move over the cooler waters to the north of the Gulf Stream, its primary energy source should come from baroclinicity. In about 24 hours, the dynamical guidance shows significant thermal advection around the cyclone, signifying its extratropical transition. The global models show the post-tropical cyclone deepening through 48 hours and the official forecast calls for some strengthening up to that time. Later in the period, as the baroclinic energy source appears to wane, gradual weakening is expected. As Odette becomes fully extratropical and gains latitude this weekend and into Monday, the wind field is forecast to expand significantly. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday as a strong post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 38.0N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 39.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 40.8N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1800Z 42.4N 58.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0600Z 43.3N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/1800Z 43.5N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0600Z 43.0N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z 42.5N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0600Z 43.0N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Odette (AT5/AL152021)
2021-09-18 10:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ODETTE FORECAST TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 18 the center of Odette was located near 38.0, -69.3 with movement NE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Odette Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-18 10:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180836 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 ...ODETTE FORECAST TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.0N 69.3W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 69.3 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will pass south of Atlantic Canada on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Odette is expected to become a strong post-tropical low by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-18 10:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR ODETTE'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 69.3W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 69.3W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 70.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 39.2N 66.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.8N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.4N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 43.3N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 43.5N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...300NE 270SE 210SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 43.0N 48.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 42.5N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 43.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 69.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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