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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-10-20 10:44:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200844 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 104.0W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo westward to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 104.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On this track, the center of the depression is forecast to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico within the warning area today, and move inland by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm before it moves inland. Rapid weakening and dissipation is expected after landfall. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in southwest Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within a portion of the warning area later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Public Advisory Number 10
2019-10-19 22:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 192041 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 84.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Gulf coast of Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 84.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move across portions of the southeastern United States tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with some slight strengthening possible Sunday night and Monday when Post-Tropical Nestor moves over the western Atlantic. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km), east of the center over Atlantic waters just offshore the Georgia coast. The NOAA buoy at Gray's Reef, Georgia, recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern United States. WIND: Gale-force winds will develop along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today and tonight. TORNADOES: A tornado remains possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and coastal Georgia this afternoon and early evening, with a few tornadoes possible tonight through Sunday morning across the coastal Carolinas. STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will continue to subside through tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Nestor. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Public Advisory Number 9
2019-10-19 22:38:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 192038 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...OCTAVE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 125.7W ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 125.7 West. Octave is moving toward the east-northeast near 2 mph. A slow and erratic motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Public Advisory Number 9A
2019-10-19 19:59:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191759 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...NESTOR MAKES LANDFALL ON ST. VINCENT ISLAND FLORIDA... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE GULF COAST OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 85.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the Ochlockonee River, Florida, and south of the Suwanee River, Florida. All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to Suwanee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 85.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is accelerating toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this afternoon, followed by a motion toward the northeast by tonight and early Sunday. On the forecast track, Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move farther inland over the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slight weakening is expected now that Nestor has moved inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center, mainly to the east of the center over Apalachee Bay and also off the Georgia coast. Offshore buoys and coastal marine observing stations along the coast of west-central Florida, including the mouth of Tampa Bay, have recently been reporting tropical-storm-force wind gusts to 40 mph (65 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will continue to subside today and tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. The warning will likely be discontinued later this afternoon. Gale-force winds are expected to begin along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today and tonight. RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeast United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon over east-central Florida, and this afternoon and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Octave Public Advisory Number 8
2019-10-19 16:57:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 191457 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Octave Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 125.9W ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Octave was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 125.9 West. Octave is moving toward the east-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow and erratic motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Octave is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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