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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Public Advisory Number 9
2019-10-19 16:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191451 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...NESTOR LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND STORM SURGE STILL AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 86.3W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Indian Pass, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 86.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this morning and early afternoon, followed by a motion toward the northeast by tonight and early Sunday. On the forecast track, Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the Florida coast, followed by slight weakening after the cyclone moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center, mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A private weather station at Bald Point on Apalachee Bay, Florida, recently measured a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). Buoys just offshore the coast of west-central Florida have been reporting tropical-storm-force wind gusts to 50 mph (80 km/h) in some of the heavier squalls during the past couple of hours. A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola, Florida, recently measured a water level of 2.9 ft above Mean Higher High Water. The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today. RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeast United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through midday in central and northern Florida, and this afternoon and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nestor Public Advisory Number 8A
2019-10-19 13:43:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191143 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND STORM SURGE AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...NESTOR STEADILY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 86.8W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County line to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Nestor has redeveloped farther west near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 86.8 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). Some erratic motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected through this morning. A turn toward the east-northeast is forecast to occur Sunday. On the forecast track, Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle late this morning or early afternoon, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later today and Sunday as a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday also as a post-tropical cyclone. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the coast, but weakening is forecast to begin after the cyclone moves inland. Nestor is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical by early afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the east of the center. The Tyndall AFB Tower located south of Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h) at an elevation of 115 ft (35 m). A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola, Florida, recently measured a water level of 3.2 ft above Mean Higher High Water. The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach or are already reaching the coast within the warning area, and will continue through this afternoon. Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today. RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through midday in the northern and central Florida Peninsula, and later today and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Berg
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Tropical Storm Nestor Public Advisory Number 8
2019-10-19 10:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...WINDS AND STORM SURGE SHOULD BE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA... ...NESTOR GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 86.0W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County line to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the broad circulation center of Tropical Storm Nestor was estimated near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.0 West. Nestor is expected to move toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track, Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle later this morning, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later today and Sunday while it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the coast, but is forecast to weaken after it moves inland. The cyclone is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach or are already reaching the coast within the warning area, and will continue through this afternoon. Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today. RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through midday in northern and central Florida Peninsula, and later today and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Octave Public Advisory Number 7
2019-10-19 10:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Octave Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...OCTAVE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 126.4W ABOUT 1340 MI...2160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Octave was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 126.4 West. Octave is drifting northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and will continue to move slowly and erratically the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight weakening is expected today and Octave could become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Nestor Public Advisory Number 7A
2019-10-19 07:38:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190537 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...WINDS AND STORM SURGE INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 86.3W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was estimated near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 86.3 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (32 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle this morning, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later today and Sunday while it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight before Nestor reaches the coast. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area within the next few hours, and continue through this afternoon. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today. RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through this morning across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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