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Tropical Storm Nestor Public Advisory Number 7
2019-10-19 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA... ...STORM SURGE AND WIND EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 87.0W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 87.0 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle on Saturday morning, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later Saturday and Sunday while it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight before Nestor reaches the coast. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently reported a minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area within the next few hours, and continue through Saturday afternoon. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States on Saturday. RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through Saturday morning across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Octave Public Advisory Number 6
2019-10-19 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...OCTAVE STILL A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 126.6W ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 126.6 West. Octave is moving slowly toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to meander for the next several days, and little net movement is anticipated. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Octave is forecast to become a remnant low over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Nestor Public Advisory Number 6A
2019-10-19 01:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 182355 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 6A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Corrected typo in Hazards Affecting Land Section ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... ...STORM SURGE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 87.6W ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 87.6 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle on Saturday morning, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later Saturday and Sunday while it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight before Nestor reaches the coast. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly to the northeast and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later tonight, and continue through early Saturday. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States on Saturday. RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through Saturday morning across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Octave Public Advisory Number 5
2019-10-18 22:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 182032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.0N 126.6W ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 126.6 West. Octave is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), but the storm is expected to meander or make a slow clockwise loop during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or two, and Octave could degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nestor Public Advisory Number 6
2019-10-18 22:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 182031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...NESTOR MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...STORM SURGE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 88.5W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River, and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to west of Navarre, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 88.5 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday as it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly to the northeast and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area this evening, and continue through early Saturday. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible tonight through Saturday morning across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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