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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 22
2021-08-21 10:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210853 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 73.2W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch east of Westport, Massachusetts has been discontinued, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Westport Massachusetts * Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 73.2 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a turn toward the north-northwest expected late today or tonight. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane today and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2021-08-21 10:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 210853 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 5(15) X(15) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 8(14) 2(16) X(16) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) 8(27) 1(28) X(28) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CONCORD NH 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 9(37) 5(42) 1(43) X(43) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 3( 3) 23(26) 7(33) 7(40) 1(41) X(41) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WORCESTER MA 34 X 5( 5) 46(51) 11(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) 14(14) 4(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 4( 4) 55(59) 12(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) 20(20) 9(29) X(29) 1(30) X(30) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X 4( 4) 35(39) 8(47) 4(51) 1(52) X(52) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X 6( 6) 35(41) 5(46) 4(50) X(50) X(50) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 24(24) 31(55) 2(57) 3(60) 1(61) X(61) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 19(19) 53(72) 2(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 1( 1) 25(26) 3(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 8( 8) 66(74) 5(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) 31(31) 7(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 7( 7) 69(76) 6(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 34(34) 9(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HARTFORD CT 34 X 6( 6) 62(68) 10(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 30(30) 9(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 9( 9) 66(75) 5(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) NEW LONDON CT 50 X 1( 1) 36(37) 6(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ALBANY NY 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 17(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ALBANY NY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 3( 3) 47(50) 14(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 34(34) 53(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 3( 3) 49(52) 3(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) MONTAUK POINT 64 X 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLIP NY 34 X 12(12) 65(77) 4(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) 32(32) 5(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 1 21(22) 52(74) 2(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 6( 6) 51(57) 6(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) 12(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X 6( 6) 45(51) 6(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X 5( 5) 25(30) 6(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 8( 8) 39(47) 5(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 5(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 3(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 7( 8) 16(24) 3(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 12(15) 8(23) 1(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 10(13) 7(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 7(10) 4(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) RICHMOND VA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW RIVER NC 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 22
2021-08-21 10:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210853 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 An earlier GMI satellite microwave image continued to indicate that Henri's low-level center was still located near the northwestern edge of the convective canopy. However, more recent geostationary satellite imagery shows that the convection is beginning to wrap around the northeastern and eastern portions of the circulation suggesting that the anticipated decrease in shear is occuring, and that Henri may be on the verge of strengthening. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remained unchanged so the initial intensity remains 60 kt, in agreement with those estimates and the earlier aircraft data. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission should be in the storm around 1200 UTC this morning. Henri is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. A mid- to upper-level low and associated trough over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley should steer Henri north-northeastward at a faster forward speed today. As Henri moves around the eastern portion of the upper-low, the storm is forecast to turn north-northwestward tonight. This motion will bring the center of Henri near or over portions of Long Island and Southern New England on Sunday and into the northeastern United States Sunday night. After that time, the cyclone should turn east-northeastward as it becomes caught in the mid-latitude westerlies. The latest dynamical model envelope continues to narrow for the first 24 to 36 hours of the forecast period and only small adjustments were needed to that portion of the track. After that time, the guidance has trended to taking Henri farther inland over the Northeastern United States, and the NHC forecast as been modified accordingly. Decreasing shear, upper-level divergence associated with the trough to Henri's west, and warm SSTs should allow the cyclone to strengthen during the next 12-18 hours. Although not explicitly shown in the intensity forecast, Henri could still peak around 75 kt later today or this evening. After that time, cooler waters are likely to cause a gradual reduction in intensity, however, Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall. Once the center moves inland over the Northeast United States, a faster rate of filling is anticipated. The system is forecast to become post-tropical in about 60 hours, and it will likely dissipate around day 4, if not a little sooner. The updated intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the intensity guidance during the first 12-24 hours, and is close to the Decay-SHIPS model thereafter. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning late tonight or Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible late tonight or Sunday across portions of Rhode Island. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York and northern New Jersey. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 33.1N 73.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 35.6N 72.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 38.8N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 40.9N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/0600Z 42.1N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1800Z 42.8N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 24/0600Z 43.3N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/0600Z 44.5N 62.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 22
2021-08-21 10:53:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 886 WTNT23 KNHC 210853 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH EAST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK * NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * CAPE COD BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS * BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET * WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. * COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 73.2W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 73.2W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 73.4W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.6N 72.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.8N 72.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.9N 72.7W...INLAND OVER LONG ISLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.1N 73.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.8N 73.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.3N 71.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 44.5N 62.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 73.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-21 07:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TODAY... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 the center of Henri was located near 32.4, -73.4 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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