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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-19 05:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI MAINTAINING INTENSITY WITH 70 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 18 the center of Henri was located near 29.8, -68.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-08-19 05:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 190300 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 16(34) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 10(39) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 39(49) 12(61) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 6(28) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 9(44) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 5(25) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 7(43) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 5(27) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 2(18) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 1(18) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 2(16) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) 1(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 11(17) 2(19) X(19) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 13
2021-08-19 05:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190300 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 ...HENRI MAINTAINING INTENSITY WITH 70 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 68.5W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 68.5 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A sharp turn to the north is expected on Friday with a general northward motion continuing into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change is strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Henri is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-08-19 05:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190300 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.5W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.5W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.0N 71.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.7N 72.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.3N 72.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 71.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.9N 70.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 40.4N 69.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 41.8N 68.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 68.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-19 05:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190300 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 Henris appearance this evening is one of a tropical cyclone that is battling vertical wind shear. The satellite structure has evolved into a large convective plume with overshooting cold -70 to -75 C cloud top temperatures near the center of the convective mass. Underneath the cirrus, Henris structure has remained steady-state, with a SSMIS pass at 2243Z showing a ragged mid-level eye on the 91 GHz channel that remains displaced a bit southeast of the low-level signature on 37 GHz. The latest satellite intensity estimates have a large spread in values ranging from 55-kt up to 80-kt. I have elected to maintain Henris intensity at 60 kt for this advisory, but there is a larger than normal uncertainty in this estimate. The initial motion continues to be just south of due west at 265/8 kt. The short-term track guidance is in general agreement that Henri will continue a general westward motion for the next day or so, as the cyclone is caught to the south of a pronounced mid- to upper-level ridge. However, the models disagree on how far westward Henri is able to advance in the short-term, and these track differences appear to be related to Henri's intensity and vertical depth of the circulation. This track dependency is nicely illustrated by the most recent ECMWF ensemble guidance, where stronger members move further south and west in the short-term, ending up on the left-side of the ensemble mean, while weaker members move slower and more poleward. The deterministic guidance is similar, with the weaker ECMWF and Canadian runs off to the east/right while the stronger GFS and UKMET runs are further left/west. These short-term track differences appear pivotal, because the ridge over Henri is then expected to quickly erode as a mid-latitude trough digs in over the Ohio Valley and becomes negatively tilted over the Mid-Atlantic. The leftward track guidance has Henri interacting with this trough leading to a track forecast much closer to the northeastern US, while the rightward track guidance is not captured by this feature, and stay further offshore escaping out to sea. In general, the mean of the track guidance is very similar, or just a shade to the right of the previous cycle. I have elected to maintain a very similar track to the previous advisory, splitting the difference between the previous forecast just left, and the reliable HCCA consensus aid just right. As mentioned previously, a NOAA Gulfstream IV aircraft has been scheduled to investigate the synoptic environment of Henri tomorrow and will hopefully provide more data ingested into the model guidance to reduce the large track spread seen in the current cycle. Henri is now under moderate northerly shear that is forecast to increase to 25-30 knots over the next 24 hours. While this would ordinarily weaken the tropical cyclone, the system also remains under very warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures that are somewhat above normal for this time of year. Due to these offsetting factors, the latest NHC intensity forecast maintains Henri at 60-kt for the next 24 hours. Afterwards, the shear is forecast to decrease as the storm turns more poleward directly under the upper-level ridge axis. This favorable synoptic pattern should allow Henri to intensify and gradual intensification is shown up to a 80-kt peak in 72-h. The NHC intensity forecast is more or less in the mean of the large guidance spread, though it should be noted that the regional hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) have somewhat stronger peak intensities later in the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. The forecast track of Henri remains near the northeast coast of the U.S. this weekend and early next week, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada remains a distinct possibility. Interests in these areas should closely follow the progress of Henri and check for updates to the forecast. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 29.8N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 30.0N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 30.7N 72.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 32.3N 72.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 34.4N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 36.9N 70.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 40.4N 69.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 41.8N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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