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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-08-18 22:49:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 356 WTNT43 KNHC 182049 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 Henri appears a little better organized this afternoon. The storm still has a central dense overcast pattern and there have been hints of an eye evident in visible satellite images. Microwave images continue to show a mid-level eye feature, but the storm does not appear quite as well organized in the low-levels, and the vortex is still titled southward with height. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 55 to 67 kt, and based on that data the initial intensity is nudged up to 60 kt, just below hurricane strength. Henri is moving just south of due west at a slightly faster pace now, 265/8 kt. The storm is expected to continue westward for another 36 hours or so as it moves in the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn to the north is forecast to begin on Friday when a cutoff low forms over the Ohio Valley and the northeastern U.S. This general northward motion should continue through the weekend as another ridge builds to the east of Henri over the northwestern Atlantic. The models continue their westward shift, and the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted in that direction and no longer shows a northeastward motion out to sea. In particular, the westward adjustment at day 5 was a sizable 150 miles, and even with this shift the NHC forecast is still a little to the east of some of the consensus aids. NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecast, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track prediction in future forecast cycles. The storm is currently in an environment of about 15-20 kt of northerly wind shear according to the SHIPS model and analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, which is the reason the vortex is currently titled. The shear should persist for another day or so, and little change in strength seems likely during that time period. However, strengthening is expected on Friday and Saturday as the shear decreases while the storm remains over the Gulf Stream. Some weakening seems likely at days 4 and 5 when the storm is expected to be over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope and only minor changes were made to the previous prediction. Key Messages: 1. The forecast track of Henri has shifted toward the northeast coast of the U.S. this weekend and early next week, increasing the risk of direct storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada during that time. Interests in these areas should closely follow the progress of Henri and check for updates to the forecast. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 29.9N 67.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 29.8N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 32.7N 72.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 35.2N 71.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 39.3N 70.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 41.4N 69.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-18 22:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 20:49:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 21:36:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-08-18 22:47:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 182047 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 16(34) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 17(53) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 15(40) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 13(42) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 8(26) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 3(21) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 3(19) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 2(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 3(24) X(24) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 2(16) X(16) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-18 22:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 18 the center of Henri was located near 29.9, -67.6 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 12
2021-08-18 22:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 182047 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 ...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 67.6W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 67.6 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for another day or so. A turn to the north is expected on Friday with that motion continuing into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Henri is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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