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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-20 05:01:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Aug 2021 03:01:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Aug 2021 03:34:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-20 05:00:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200259 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 The satellite presentation on Henri this evening continues to exhibit a persistent bursting pattern, with the center estimated to be just to the north and west of the coldest cloud tops which occasionally have been below -80 C in the overshooting tops. This current satellite presentation is primarily due to continued moderate to strong northerly vertical wind shear, which is forcing the convection underneath the cirrus canopy down-shear of the low-level center, as seen on a 2230 UTC SSMIS microwave pass. While the mid-level vortex with the convection also remains tilted down-shear of the low-level center, it has not completely separated due to the persistent convection, preventing the low-level center from escaping poleward in more shallow low-level steering. Tonight's subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB/TAFB are in agreement with T3.5/55 kt and given that this value is near what the earlier Air Force Reconnaissance mission found, the latest intensity is being maintained at 55 kt for this advisory. There is a bit of uncertainty determining if Henri has begun a more poleward motion since the center remains under the convective cirrus plume, but my best guess is now 285/9 kt. Over the next 12-24 hours, the mid- to upper-level ridging that has dominated the synoptic steering pattern for Henri the last few days will quickly break down, as a shortwave trough drops in from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and cuts off. This feature is now forecast to continue digging in to the west of Henri. To the east, a new mid-level ridge is also forecast to build in to the right of Henri. This synoptic pattern should draw the cyclone poleward with an acceleration to the north-northeast in the 24-48 h period. Afterwards, the aforementioned trough takes on a negative tilt to the southwest of Henri, helping to reorient the mid- to upper-level flow out of the south-southeast, and this flow could result in a slight leftward bend in the track between 48-72 h. The majority of guidance this cycle now is forecasting the mid-level ridge east of Henri to build poleward with the storm, blocking an easy path for the storm to stay on a more northeast heading out to sea. Consequently, the latest NHC forecast track now explicitly shows landfall in southeast Massachusetts at 72 h. The track guidance this cycle has come into better agreement, though there remain some leftward (UKMET) and rightward (ECMWF) outliers. The latest forecast track lies very close to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) guidance, which is also very near the latest GFS forecast track. Data from the NOAA G-IV synoptic mission around Henri shows that just north of the tropical cyclone there remains some very dry mid-latitude air, which is being advected into the storm by 20-25 kt of northerly vertical wind shear. Over the next 24-36 hours, this shear is forecast to gradual subside, as Henri moves near the center of an upper-level ridge axis. By 36-48 hours, the vertical wind shear is forecast to be under 10-kt by both the GFS- and ECWMF-based SHIPS guidance, while the storm is also traversing 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast still calls for strengthening beginning after 12 hours, and the rate of strengthening could be a bit quicker as the storm moves over the warm gulf stream waters between 36-48 hours. Thereafter, Henri will cross a very sharp SST gradient with sea-surface temperatures down below 23 C near the New England coast to the east of Long Island. Henri is forecast to begin weakening after 48 hours, but the storm could still be near hurricane intensity by the time Henri is forecast to be near the Northeast coastline. Transition to a post-tropical storm is expected to begin shortly thereafter which should be sometime in the 96-h to 120-h points as deep convection ceases over the storm over cold SSTs As noted previously, the wind field of Henri is expected to expand, especially as it interacts with a mid-latitude trough located to its west. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of this area early Friday. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding over portions of southeastern New England Sunday into Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 29.8N 72.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 30.3N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 31.8N 73.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 37.6N 71.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 40.1N 70.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 41.7N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0000Z 42.5N 70.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 25/0000Z 43.7N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-08-20 04:56:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 200255 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 10(16) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) 9(37) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 6(16) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) 7(32) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 8(30) 4(34) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 12(38) 2(40) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 13(48) 2(50) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 15(52) 1(53) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 1(20) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 14(56) 1(57) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) 1(22) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 15(58) 1(59) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) X(25) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 13(50) 1(51) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 48(50) 12(62) 1(63) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) X(28) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 56(60) 9(69) X(69) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 5(35) 1(36) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 63(78) 4(82) X(82) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 5(51) X(51) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 61(69) 8(77) X(77) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 7(40) 1(41) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 10(42) X(42) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 11(46) X(46) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 12(49) 1(50) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 11(56) X(56) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 6(24) X(24) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) X(34) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) ALBANY NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 11(33) X(33) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 57(68) 6(74) X(74) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 10(40) X(40) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 29(37) 8(45) X(45) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 9(30) X(30) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 9(28) X(28) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) 1(20) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 7(25) X(25) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) X(16) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 3(22) 1(23) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 3(21) X(21) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-20 04:55:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI HOLDING ON AGAINST SHEAR AND MAINTAINING 65-MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 the center of Henri was located near 29.8, -72.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 17
2021-08-20 04:55:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200255 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...HENRI HOLDING ON AGAINST SHEAR AND MAINTAINING 65-MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 72.3W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Watches will likely be required for a portion of this area early Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 72.3 West. Henri is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A sharp turn to the northwest and north is anticipated on Friday, followed by an acceleration to the north and north-northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well offshore of the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days, but it is forecast to be near or over southern New England on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours, but Henri is forecast to intensify into a hurricane by Friday night with additional strengthening expected this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over southeastern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas of flash, urban, and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada on Friday and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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