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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-11-13 21:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 132037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 22.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 480SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 22.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 23.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.7N 21.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.4N 19.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.3N 18.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.5N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.4N 17.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 39.2N 12.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 22.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-13 18:15:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 131715 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic, and has initiated advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Thirty-One, located over the central Caribbean Sea. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirty-One are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirty-One are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-13 18:02:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 131702 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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weather
pacific
eastern
Tropical Depression Thirty-One Graphics
2020-11-13 16:54:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 15:54:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 16:02:46 GMT
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depression
thirtyone
Tropical Depression Thirty-One Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-11-13 16:09:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 131509 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTY-ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTY-ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 11(28) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 27(40) 9(49) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 7(28) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 15(42) 2(44) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 1(21) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20(26) 6(32) X(32) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) COLON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 1(15) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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