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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-13 06:27:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
862 ABPZ20 KNHC 130527 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by mid next week as the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest over the open eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-13 03:54:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 02:54:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 02:54:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-11-13 03:52:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 121 WTNT45 KNHC 130252 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 The structure of Theta has been waxing and waning today with moderate convection attempting to wrap around the center, though the coldest cloud tops have been decaying before wrapping fully around. Earlier, there was a 2222 UTC partial ASCAT-B pass that showed peak winds of 40-45 kt on the south side of Theta. However the highest winds from this instrument the previous two nights were in the southwest quadrant and it is estimated that higher winds may still exist in this quadrant of Theta. For this reason, the latest intensity estimate is only adjusted downward to 50 kt for this advisory. Theta continues to track east at 090/12 kt as the system remains steered by flow along the north side of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is forecast to gradually weaken over the next 24-36 h and Theta is forecast to bend to the east-southeast as the cyclone becomes more influenced by mid-level northerly flow associated with an upstream ridge building to the northwest. After 36 h, Theta is expected to slow down significantly as it becomes a shallow cyclone in light low-level flow. Finally, low-level southerly flow ahead of a mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to steer Theta's remnant low northeastward by the end of the forecast. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a bit southward for the first part of the forecast, and the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly further south, close to the reliable ICVN consensus. Thus far, Theta has been struggling to produce deep convection that has successfully wrapped around its center. While Vertical Wind Shear is forecast to decrease per ECMWF-SHIPS guidance over the next 12-24 h, it remains to be seen if the current degree of instability is enough for Theta to take advantage of the more conducive wind environment. Thereafter, Vertical Wind Shear increases sharply from the north, importing a much more stable environment over Theta. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast maintains the current 50 kt intensity over the next 24 h with weakening forecasted thereafter, in general agreement with the latest intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 31.7N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 31.7N 24.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 31.4N 22.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 31.0N 20.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 30.8N 19.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 30.8N 18.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 31.2N 18.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0000Z 34.3N 18.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-11-13 03:50:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 130250 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-13 03:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD... As of 3:00 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 the center of Theta was located near 31.7, -26.0 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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