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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-09-14 19:24:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 141724 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located north of Bermuda, on Tropical Depression Rene, located over the central Atlantic, on recently upgraded Hurricane Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the east-central tropical Atlantic, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for development, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly southwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow development of the system this week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Vicky are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Vicky are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Rene Graphics

2020-09-14 16:53:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 14:53:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 15:32:28 GMT

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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30

2020-09-14 16:51:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 437 FONT13 KNHC 141451 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 30

2020-09-14 16:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 141451 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Deep convection continues to pulse over the eastern portion of Rene's circulation, enough to maintain the system's status as a tropical cyclone. However, recent visible statellite imagery suggest that the circulation may not be as well defined as it was yesterday. Satellite classifications support an initial wind speed of 25 kt. Strong west-northwesterly shear and dry air are expected to cause the depression to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low within the next 12-24 hours. The global models show the low-level circulation dissipating within 2 to 3 days and so does the official forecast. Rene has moved very little overnight but a west-southwestward or southwestward motion within the low-level steering flow should begin soon. That general motion is expected to continue until dissipation in a day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 27.5N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 27.0N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/1200Z 26.4N 50.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 24.6N 53.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Depression Rene (AT3/AL182020)

2020-09-14 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...RENE CONTINUES TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 14 the center of Rene was located near 27.5, -48.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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