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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-15 01:09:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 142309 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Karina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-15 01:03:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 142303 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda, on Hurricane Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the east-central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the remnants of Rene, which dissipated over the central Atlantic. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is currently producing little shower or thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Vicky are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Vicky are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-14 22:59:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 20:59:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 22:00:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-14 22:55:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142055 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 The morning visible images showed Karina's partially obscured low level center under the northeast edge of the cyclone's deep convection. The displacement of the center is due to the ongoing presence of moderate vertical wind shear from the northeast. Cloud top temperatures have generally warmed through most of the morning, though the latest images showed a small burst of deep convection south of the center. An ASCAT pass this morning showed a large swath of 35 kt winds in the southeastern semicircle of Karina's circulation. The initial wind radii have been increased to account for the updated data. Dvorak fixes came in at 35 kt from SAB, and 45 kt from TAFB and PHFO. ASCAT peak winds were 37 kt. Based on a blend of these data, and little change in Karina's appearance in satellite imagery, the initial intensity will be held at 40 kt for this advisory. Moderate shear is expected to continue to affect Karina for another 24 hours. The shear will become weak from 36 to 72 hours, but by then the cyclone is expected to be over sub-26 degree C sea surface temperatures. Most of the objective aids indicate that peak intensity has been reached, and gradual weakening will occur after 24 hours. The intensity forecast closely follows HCCA, and has Karina becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 96 hours, if not sooner. This forecast trend keeps the intensity higher than the statistical guidance. The initial motion for this package is 305/9 kt. Karina is expected to continue moving northwestward to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone. This motion is expected to continue through 60 to 72 hours. Karina should turn toward the southwest as deep convection ceases and the cyclone becomes steered by the low level flow. The forecast track has been adjusted a bit northward from the previous forecast, in part due to an adjustment in the initial position, and closely follows the HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.5N 118.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 19.4N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 21.9N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-09-14 22:49:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 142049 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 26 49(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 20N 120W 50 2 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 120W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER KODAMA
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