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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-15 07:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 150531 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda, on Hurricane Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing little shower or thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. An area of low pressure has formed from a low-latitude tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated during the past several hours, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward during the next few days where it will encounter warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Vicky are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Vicky are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-15 07:09:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
141 ABPZ20 KNHC 150509 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Karina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-15 04:45:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 02:45:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 02:45:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-15 04:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150239 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Karina may not have reached its peak after all. The northeasterly vertical wind shear appears to have eased a bit, allowing the dense cirrus overcast from the central convection to fully obscure the low level cloud center. The cyclone also appears to be better organized than 24 hours ago. As a result, most of the Dvorak intensity estimates have increased, with ADT up to 39 kt, and PHFO and TAFB indicating 55 kt. SAB was unchanged from the 6 hours ago at 35 kt. Based on a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 45 kt. The 12 ft seas radii have also been adjusted based on guidance from TAFB. Moderate shear should continue to affect Karina for another 12 to 24 hours. The shear is forecast to weaken after that, but by then the cyclone is expected to be over sub-26 degree C sea surface temperatures. There is still a narrow window for additional intensification, but most of the guidance holds the intensity for another 12 to 24 hours, with gradual weakening occurring afterward. The forecast holds Karina at 45 kt for 24 hours, followed by weakening to post-tropical remnant low status by 72 hours. This is close to the HCCA guidance. The initial motion for this advisory is 310/10 kt. Karina is forecast to continue moving northwestward to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone. This motion is expected to continue through 60 to 72 hours. Karina should turn toward the southwest as deep convection ceases and the cyclone becomes steered by the low level flow. The objective guidance is tightly packed through around 60 hours, with variations occurring thereafter regarding when the southwestward turn will occur. The forecast track is close to the previous forecast and closely follows the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.1N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 23.3N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 23.8N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z 23.5N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-15 04:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER THIS EVENING... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 the center of Karina was located near 19.1, -119.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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