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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-09 22:34:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092034 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Although the cloud pattern of Rene has changed little in overall organization since earlier today, there are some indications that the easterly shear over the storm has diminished somewhat. Cirrus cloud motions show that upper-level outflow is slightly more evident over the eastern portion of the circulation, but it remains limited over that region. The current intensity estimate remains 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Vertical shear is predicted to be modest over Rene during the next couple of days, and this should allow for some strengthening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus and continues to show the system becoming a hurricane, albeit briefly. After day 3, the western portion of a large upper-level trough over the eastern Atlantic is likely to impart increased shear, which should lead to weakening. Conventional satellite and microwave fixes show a continued west-northwestward motion at about 285/11 kt. Rene is currently located on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 40W-45W longitude should induce a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest in 3-5 days. By the end of the forecast period, Rene's forward progress begins to be blocked by building mid-level heights to its north and northwest, which should cause the cyclone's forward motion to slow down significantly. The official track forecast has been adjusted farther to the left of the previous one, to be closer to the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 18.0N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.4N 34.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.9N 36.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 19.5N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.5N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 26.9N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 28.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-09 22:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of Rene was located near 18.0, -32.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-09 22:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 20:33:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 20:33:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-09 22:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 393 WTNT23 KNHC 092032 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 32.7W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 32.7W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 32.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.4N 34.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.9N 36.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.5N 38.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 26.9N 46.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 28.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 32.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-09 22:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 092031 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Paulette's satellite presentation has not changed since this morning, with the center exposed just to the south of the deepest convection. Between this morning's ASCAT pass and the most recent satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB, which are unchanged at T3.0 and T3.5, respectively, the maximum wind estimate remains 50 kt. Paulette continues to move into an area of stronger southwesterly shear, which is now estimated to be 25-30 kt, and this shear is likely to increase further to 30-35 kt within the next 24 hours. As a result, Paulette is expected to begin weakening by Thursday, and the NHC forecast is embedded among the tightly clustered intensity guidance during the first 2-3 days. The shear is expected to relax gradually from 48 hours and beyond and turn out of the southeast, which should allow for some restrengthening on days 3 through 5 when shear magnitudes could go as low as 10 kt. The HWRF and COAMPS-TC models in particular take full advantage of this environment and bring Paulette to hurricane intensity by day 4. The updated NHC intensity forecast is not nearly this aggressive, but it does indicate a little more strengthening at the end of the forecast period than has been shown in previous forecasts, lying closest to the statistical-dynamical guidance. Model environmental trends will be monitored, and additional intensity adjustments at the end of the forecast period will be made accordingly in subsequent forecasts. Paulette remains on a west-northwestward course (295/9 kt), located to the south of low- to mid-level ridging which extends across the central and western Atlantic. The track models suggest that when the cyclone weakens in a day or two, lower-level winds could steer the cyclone westward for a short time. However, a combination of the ridge weakening and Paulette's expected re-strengthening should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward in 2-3 days and maintain that trajectory through the end of the forecast period. The only significant change from the previous forecast is that the 5-day forecast point has been shifted westward, with the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA models all lying on the left side of the guidance envelope by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 20.5N 47.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 20.9N 48.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 21.4N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 21.6N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 22.3N 54.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 23.3N 55.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 24.8N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 30.5N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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